2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: A question for those who think Trump will defy the consensus and win in November. [View all]Hate to rain on your parade but the most recent Oregon poll had HRC up by only 2 points over Trump. This is Oregon!! This should be the canary in the mine shaft - we are in trouble. And something drastic has to happen.
I would have given HRC a much better chance before the IG report emerged. She polls horribly for trustworthiness and the IG report I think will see her sink further. As much as I would like a Democrat to win, I don't think it will be easy as many think.
I think the once reliable blue states of New Hampshire, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada and New Mexico will be in play. Slight favor to the Dems due to history, but HRC is weakened by the IG report. If the FBI report is similar, even without an indictment, I think the game will be over.
I think Virginia and North Carolina will turn Red. Ohio, Florida and Colorado will favor the Pugs, but winnable. We cannot hope that Trump will implode - he may be many things, but he is very skilled at reading a crowd and saying what they want to hear.
Trump holds some very interesting foreign policy views - he's basically an isolationist. I think there is a large block of voters this will appeal to. I think there are many voters who are tired of the "wars" we have been engaged in and want it to stop.
For victory in November, HRC must unite the Democratic party - tough challenge given the primary; and I'm talking about just the lifelong Dems that supported Bernie this time. HRC is not a natural politician. She is rather stiff when speaking and she has a condescending tone when she is challenged. She is not the natural charismatic politician Bill or Barrack are and it will be hard to charm the party together as has been done in the past.
More importantly HRC MUST win the Independents that supported Bernie in the primaries and then some. Without the Independents we cannot win. There will be no favorable map to the White House.