Drunken Irishman's Final 2012 Electoral College Prediction [View all]

[Drunken Irishman]

Well here it is ... my final prediction. We'll see how close I come!



I have Obama winning almost every swing state sans Arizona and Missouri. Romney's advantage in Florida and North Carolina is razor thin and will ultimately come down to voter turnout. You can essentially call those states a tie, but because Romney leads, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and award him both electoral votes.

Surprisingly, Obama will win Ohio by 5.5 points - 1.5 better than his '08 total.

Bottom line - Obama will win 300-plus electoral votes and can expand his lead if he gets some breaks in NC or Florida.

The results in many states will be close, therefore we're probably in for a long night before enough states are called to put Obama over the 269 needed to win. Of course, many of the margins are good enough that a great deal of these states could be called within an hour or two of closing.

We'll see. But Obama wins.