2016 Postmortem

Response to senz (Reply #31)

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New York Times: California Looking Less Like a Sure Thing for Hillary Clinton [View all] imagine2015 May 2016 OP

I live in California and I find it hard to believe that Sanders will win as many delegates Tal Vez May 2016 #1

Bernie and his supporters are hoping he will win more delegates than Clinton in California imagine2015 May 2016 #2

Hillary won CA in 2008 LoverOfLiberty May 2016 #4

Obama didn't have record unfavorables or an FBI investigation hanging over his head. frylock May 2016 #38

Good for her. This is 2016. dchill May 2016 #51

What Imagine2015 said! Betty Karlson May 2016 #27

But she'll already have the nomination by the time NJ finishes voting. pnwmom May 2016 #46

I expect a 45/55 split Retrograde May 2016 #5

Seems like you left this part out LoverOfLiberty May 2016 #3

It's not at all left out. Didn't you click on my link to read it? imagine2015 May 2016 #7

He has endorsed about 8-9 DOwn Ticket Progressive candidates Ferd Berfel May 2016 #12

I've long suspected the vote in CA will be reasonably close. Garrett78 May 2016 #6

I don't think Clinton or Bernie will have enough delegates to win the nomination. imagine2015 May 2016 #8

The person with the most pledged delegates always becomes the nominee. Garrett78 May 2016 #9

Right. Neither can cinch the nomination from pledged delegates. senz May 2016 #34

The Don is the presumptive nominee on the basis of his combined delegates. pnwmom May 2016 #47

46% non-white KingFlorez May 2016 #10

99% non-security-flouting lagomorph777 May 2016 #14

Didn't see this, KingFlorez? senz May 2016 #29

Clinton doesn't actually need California. Bernie could win every delegate in the state ucrdem May 2016 #11

*IF* Sanders were to end up with 2026 pledged delegates, the SDs should at least consider switching. Garrett78 May 2016 #15

2026 doesn't clinch except in #BernieMath. ucrdem May 2016 #16

I didn't say 2026 clinched. But the PD leader has always been nominated. Garrett78 May 2016 #18

If he wins every pledged delegate in CA he gets to 2011 total. And Clinton still wins. ucrdem May 2016 #19

If he wins ~67.5% of the remaining pledged delegates, he'd end up with 2026 pledged delegates. Garrett78 May 2016 #20

And he will have lost. How hard is that to grasp? nt ucrdem May 2016 #21

You're assuming SDs wouldn't switch if he were to win a majority of PDs. Garrett78 May 2016 #22

Yes, I'm also assuming the earth won't crash into the sun before July 25. nt ucrdem May 2016 #23

Since that's never happened and what I'm referring to has happened, poor analogy. Garrett78 May 2016 #24

The circumstances are completely different. SDs owe nothing to Sanders and at this point ucrdem May 2016 #25

WRONG. Clinton cannot reach 2383 pledged delegates senz May 2016 #31

It isn't impossible. It's just *highly* unlikely. Garrett78 May 2016 #33

2383 includes pledged and unpledged delegates. She doesn't need 2200 pledged to clinch or win. ucrdem May 2016 #39

Of course she doesn't. I was just predicting how many she'll end up with. Garrett78 May 2016 #41

She'll win a majority of pledged and superdelegates, and there's no doubt about how the convention ucrdem May 2016 #42

*sigh* ucrdem May 2016 #35

Facts are facts. senz May 2016 #36

Why are you treating fellow Democrats LoverOfLiberty May 2016 #43

Ye shall know them by their candidate. senz May 2016 #44

By that standard LoverOfLiberty May 2016 #45

The fact is that the total number of delegates includes the supers. Half of the pledged alone pnwmom May 2016 #50

She doesn't need to. That is half of the TOTAL delegates, INCLUDING SUPERS. pnwmom May 2016 #49

Well if she gets there it won't be until July 25. senz Jun 2016 #55

She's the presumptive nominee. And in July she'll win the convention, pnwmom Jun 2016 #56

"Presumptive nominee" is meaningless here. Hill is only ahead by 284 delegates. senz Jun 2016 #59

"ONLY"?! He would have to get big wins EVERYWHERE, wins of 70% or more of pnwmom Jun 2016 #61

The Metric for the winner Primary in a two-way race is who has the majority of delegates. LuvLoogie May 2016 #52

Message auto-removed Name removed Jun 2016 #54

The PPI poll has some obvious math errors. 538 is treating it as an outlier. TwilightZone May 2016 #13

You're right. Those are very strange numbers. n/t pnwmom Jun 2016 #57

That 2 point poll was questionable at best. Renew Deal May 2016 #17

Apparently it is. Sanders people are trying to have vote by mail ballots thrown out KingFlorez May 2016 #26

#Berniegohomealready ucrdem May 2016 #28

Wow!! They wanted to leave the party in a snit and make a big statement, R B Garr May 2016 #40

The NY Times.... LenaBaby61 May 2016 #30

Hill Folk are fighting this tooth and nail. They are afraid, as they should be. senz May 2016 #32

Gee, no shit? frylock May 2016 #37

Email issue trickling down...still it is a closed primary. snowy owl May 2016 #48

Kicked Amorka May 2016 #53

A big win for Sanders in CA would have wiped out Clinton's pledged delegate lead. senz Jun 2016 #58

Message auto-removed Name removed Jun 2016 #60