2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Trump is never going to make it to November. [View all]Jim Lane
(11,175 posts)Trump will turn 70 next week (June 14, still time to send him a card) and is overweight. He could have a heart attack or something of the sort. Failing a serious health problem, though, he will be the nominee and will remain such through the general election.
He probably loses in November and that's that. Suppose, however, he holds the Romney states and, with a pitch to the Rust Belt working class that emphasizes his fervent opposition to trade deals, flips Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, along with Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire. (All these states were single-digit Obama wins in 2012.) That gives him 273 electoral votes. Then at least four of those electors go the "faithless" route and vote for the hypothetical sane Republican alternative, Ryan being an obvious choice. With no one having 270, the election goes to the House of Representatives, which must choose among the top three. Hello, President Ryan.
In craps, the "Field" bet wins if the next roll comes up as any of several different totals. (Hence, our idiom "playing the field" means that you have several options.) If I could place a political field bet on "any sane Republican option" (because it wouldn't certainly be Ryan, they might go with Romney or some Ohioans might go with Kasich), I would bet that the non-Trump Republican field has, collectively, a better chance at the Presidency than Trump does.