2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: I think we just won the Senate... [View all]caraher
(6,278 posts)I did some searching and there is apparently just one poll, done by Democratic consultants, shortly before Bayh announced. That's the one where he's up by 21. I can't remember whether Trump had named Pence by then... but while we did give Obama a 1-point win in 2008, Romney wound up with a double-digit victory in 2012, and the main reason we have one Democratic senator is that the Murdock couldn't keep his mouth about his belief that rape babies are gifts from God.
Bayh has fantastic name recognition, which will go a long way, but this is also likely to be a Trump stronghold, so it's going to take some serious ticket-splitting for that kind of poll result to hold up. Most of the projection web sites still rate Indiana a toss-up, with good reason.