2016 Straw Poll

[fujiyama]

73. My guess is all those plus Warner will be vying for the nomination

Well, OK I'm not sure if Hillary will still want it. It will be up to her and how she's feeling and whether she's still up for it. Women have longer life expectencies. As long as she's healthy, I see no reason why it will be a problem. Seventy really isn't quite that old.

She'd get my vote at this point. Her husband is perhaps the most popular politician alive in the country. She's probably the most popular female politician. They've also proven to be team players. She already has a ton of experience. The only reason she lost in '08 is because Obama was a once in a generation, transformative candidate (and due to gender alone, Hillary would have been a historic nominee). Edwards, Biden, and Richardson - none of them had a chance. It's actually laughable to compare any of them to either Hillary or Obama.

O'Malley and Cuomo are also intriguing candidates. Warner would be a "safe" but somewhat duller bet. Gillibrand would be interesting, but I'm sure she won't run if Hillary is interested. I like Warren, but not just yet. I think Biden would be too old. And I like him, but he doesn't have the star power Hillary does.

It will be an open election, so we'll see quite a few initially interested. If Hillary enters, much of it will clear out. I think we'll get a better idea who's interested two years from now. We'll also see if republicans will continue going down a path of crazy (most likely they will). I think we're beyond racial/identity politics in our party and at this point we know as a party we can build an effective coalition on the national level as well. We're entering a new era here. Obama has proven that.