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2016 Postmortem

elleng

(141,926 posts)

28. Hasn't Wang/Princeton been MORE accurate than 538?

Reply to charliea (Reply #23)

Wed Oct 5, 2016, 07:20 PM

Oct 2016

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FiveThirtyEight Has Some Really Bad News for Trump and the GOP [View all] ffr Oct 2016 OP

That is wonderful news, and from a reputable source too. CaliforniaPeggy Oct 2016 #1

I'd love to see H get much more than 270 EV. Ilsa Oct 2016 #2

She has momentum, depending on voter turnout could get upwards of 370. ffr Oct 2016 #4

I wish as well. Unfortunately you will have to throw in Indiana as die hard Orange Menace. Missn-Hitch Oct 2016 #14

Democrats still need to get off their asses and vote...so take all this beachbumbob Oct 2016 #3

Yes. See above. It's up to us. ffr Oct 2016 #5

I hope they are right, but they've been wrong before. Goblinmonger Oct 2016 #6

Key difference. He wasn't running against Clinton in NH. ffr Oct 2016 #7

They were also wrong about Michigan. They predicted Hillary was 10 points ahead but Bernie won it. 4lbs Oct 2016 #13

this is a garbage in garbage out problem. 538 is right assuming the polls are right La Lioness Priyanka Oct 2016 #18

Yes, however, that's why they weight the polls and calculate the margins that way. 4lbs Oct 2016 #24

when they said the Trump thing they were not talking stats. it was conjecture La Lioness Priyanka Oct 2016 #17

Love it! sheshe2 Oct 2016 #8

This is going to be a blowout of historical proportions! Joe941 Oct 2016 #9

It will be for those who can take credit for it - the voters. ffr Oct 2016 #10

I hate to keep harping on this but... ailsagirl Oct 2016 #11

Sawyer from Lost once explained it Bucky Oct 2016 #34

Great! Can we stop pretending he has even the most remote chance of being elected now? TonyPDX Oct 2016 #12

Sure we can, on November 9th. ffr Oct 2016 #16

I'm feeling hopeful, but no... 25% is much more than a remote chance. Silent3 Oct 2016 #20

Focus, people... Helen Borg Oct 2016 #15

Remember the Brexit. mwooldri Oct 2016 #19

Brexit won because the under 30's didn�t vote VMA131Marine Oct 2016 #29

Remember the Colombian Peace Referendum. stone space Oct 2016 #31

a 25% chance is still way too close for comfort. athenasatanjesus Oct 2016 #21

Zero chance Johnson is anywhere near 7.2 on Election Day RonniePudding Oct 2016 #22

Nate Silver is not the only reliable source with disturbing news for the GOP charliea Oct 2016 #23

Hasn't Wang/Princeton been MORE accurate than 538? elleng Oct 2016 #28

What's the difference between random drift and Bayesian? Poiuyt Oct 2016 #36

Holy shit, we got Iowa back today! Hamlette Oct 2016 #25

I wish Trashpot's campaign would be put out of it's misery Cakes488 Oct 2016 #26

I want a landslide NastyRiffraff Oct 2016 #27

Um...if that is correct, it's great news for Trump. A 25% probability is enormous in the context... stone space Oct 2016 #30

Our absentee ballots came in today's mail. Grammy23 Oct 2016 #32

In Now Cast Iowa is blue...Arizona will be next NoGoodNamesLeft Oct 2016 #33

I also heard that Ohio is turning blue Wednesdays Oct 2016 #37

PEC/Wang and betting markets much more consistent than 538, radius777 Oct 2016 #35