2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: I really don't understand how Trump is even competitive in this race [View all]Garrett78
(10,721 posts)You don't seem to be comprehending the rather basic point of my post or the point of the OP. You keep insisting that I'm suggesting Trump is on the rise or likely to win. I've made it quite clear that I think Clinton will win and that she'll probably win well over 300 electoral votes. And I agree that Trump's threshold is right around 40%.
The very graph you keep posting demonstrates that the race is close. Unless, again, you don't think 4-6 points qualifies as close.
The fact of the matter is that, given how atrocious a candidate Trump is, the race is close. Polling suggests both candidates are in the 40s. Even if it ends up being 50%-40% (with 10% going to other candidates), it's pretty stunning when you consider just how awful Trump is.
None of which changes the fact that the electoral map heavily favors Clinton (or any Democratic candidate, given the national demographics).