Warmed up Turkey, Clinton Must be + 6-7 Points Nationally [View all]

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Warmed up Turkey, Clinton Must be + 6-7 Points Nationally.

A couple of years ago I received a sobering message from my doctor, the stubborn increase in my blood pressure was aggravating my well controlled diabetes and the unpredictable Meniere's that had became my constant partner with "railroad in my brain" or more often called “ringing in the ears”. A drastic reduction in stress was ordered immediately and I was unable to get rid of the idiot who was dating my daughter immediately so I would have to step away from DU. I have a certain obsession with seeing misstated facts and when I saw one famous poster purposely misstate facts about Afghanistan so that he could promote his income producing blog I was unable to sleep that night and triggered a Meniere’s vertigo attack.

Attempts to be a moderate self controlled DU member failed. I also knew that Secretary Clinton was going to be the nominee and that there was going to be a lot of attacks on her because even in the best of times the Clintons can complicate the record even when they are doing a good job, and even when they are doing a miracle, and I have personally seen Sec. Clinton work a political miracle

So I went frozen turkey on DU. My health improved. Like George Costanza, I invented the “its not you, its me”. It wasn’t DU it was me, I couldn’t disengage rationally or moderate. Six months ago I started “lurking” and noticed that all of the people who were driving me crazy had left DU and there was talk of yet another anti DU site. I took the turkey out of the freezer. Its been defrosting and now I will try a little warmed up Turkey by posting a single post a day if I think of something that might be useful. To the many friends who I left here without a word, I apologize. It wasn’t you, it was me. Of course it really was those idiots who took every opportunity to tear down the most decent family to enter into public life in my lifetime or live in the White house ever. (People who say “its not you, its me” of course never actually mean that its “me”).

SECRETARY OF STATE CLINTON IS CLEARLY AT + 6 NATIONALLY.

I noticed that there is more nervousness at DU than is consistent with the known facts in the polls. Clearly Secretary Clinton is at or above + 6 nationally. There really cannot be any rational argument with this even if all of the national polls show that she is even, plus 2 or whatever.

Look at all of the state polls. It is simply not possible for Sec. Clinton to be

CA +23
NY +20
WA, IL, MA, NJ + 13
FL/NC Even
TX, AZ, GA – 4

and only +2 nationally. Either all of the hundreds of state polls are way off or a few of the national polls are a little bit off.

This thing has been baked since the 3rd debate and then put into petrified wood with Access Hollywood clip. Across the country there are exactly 156 people who are really undecided. Gallup tried to find out what psychological condition might exist that was common among these 156 people but suspended their testing when administering the “over or under” test which asked participants to replace a new roll of toilet paper. People who are still undecided at this point were found to take over an hour and a half to try and figure out if they should have the toilet paper going over the spindle or under.

NO BIG CONSPIRACY, JUST A LITTLE REPUBLICAN CRAPOLA

The so called tightening is usually an error of predicting turnouts based on past elections. While AA turnout is slightly down, the combined AA and Hispanic vote is up, but most national polls don’t account for that.

The poll showing 28% of Republicans voting Democrat in Florida was a small sample and probably exaggerated, but not by much. In any case the key metric is not how many Republicans vote Democratic but the disparity between the two. Usually it is a wash with 90% of each party voting the ticket that they are registered for. If however it is 85% Republican (a pretty safe figure) and 95% Democratic (equally safe) voters then that alone would account for a 3-4% under value in the polls. Trump cannot win the popular vote with that disparity.

Based on all of the above and the fact that there are no undecided voters in the actual election it is logical to conclude that today Clinton is around 53% to Trump 45% and it is unlikely to change much. There is one more point that confirms this: Trump has a hard ceiling around 43% with undecideds, (45% with). Steve Kornacki mentioned yesterday that in looking at almost 40 different polls Trump only went over 45 once.

Having said that we are probably ahead by 7% we are in a good position but we could definitely lose the Electoral College. That is simply because a lot of that 7% vote is “wasted” by giving us redundant winning votes in states like CA. If we lose both Florida and North Carolina it will become very close because Trump probably is going to take Ohio, in part due to the terrible performance of Ted Strickland.

Then there is this: There are no polls for “registered voters” for North Carolina. Registration and one stop voting continues there until Saturday. A win in either FL or NC seals the results and saves the country form 4 years of constitutional anarchy.

The reference to Republican “crapola” is this; In order to boost funding or turnout the Republicans will finance a whole bunch of one off state polls from right wing pollsters with questionable ethics and dump them at the same time. Four years ago we caught Gravis doing this at a time when Romney had a money raising crises. This year the previously unheard of Remington is dumping dozens of polls in swing states showing remarkable Trump bounce. One off polls like this are worthless because it doesn’t give us a reference point to compare with their earlier work, it is for this reason that these polls are really only for trying to generate Republican turn out in swing states and fodder for the really, really, really concern troll.