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2016 Postmortem

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MyNameIsKhan

(2,205 posts)
Fri Nov 4, 2016, 04:02 PM Nov 2016

State of EV in Nevada: HCR builds insurmountable lead [View all]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/794616228103028736

NV: Almost 700k votes in - tough landscape for Trump. Dems are +6% in EV, and 28.8% of Dem EV didn't vote in '12 (25.5% of GOP).

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Consider this 2012 elections total votes casted were 1.1 out of those two counties amounted following totals:

Clark: 691,190 or 68.10% of total, Obama won by 100k votes
Washoe: 187,855 or 18.51% of total Obama won by 8k votes

Final: (Obama)531,373 (Romey)463,567 ... Difference is 67k votes

Total active voter registrations: 1,464,819 since Nov 04, 2016
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4518

2012 turnout was 56% based elect project.org but we can probably get to 75% turnout this year which will amount to 1098614 votes, remaining votes are 398614 and Dem Lead is 42000

Trump need to win by 10.5% in pending votes on Election day to carry this election, this is exactly like what Jon Ralston pointed out:

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 2h2 hours ago
Jon Ralston Retweeted Sam Stein
Not sure about that, but: Trump is not going to win NV by 10 points on Election Day. Not even a Jim Carrey in "Dumb and Dumber" chance.

I further have a hunch the Republicans are cannibalizing election day votes. which makes above task even more impossible.
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Nevada DemKittyNC Nov 2016 #1
Yup we are done here... He has one event in Reno, he can waste his time, Reno does not have many MyNameIsKhan Nov 2016 #3
Definitely feeling DemKittyNC Nov 2016 #4
Early vote in NC is looking good as well. The link shows Clinton's EV lead Persondem Nov 2016 #7
Yes it is very likely NC will be done by end of EV tomorrow... Cheeto has no way to come back MyNameIsKhan Nov 2016 #10
It's insurmountable when it's counted alcibiades_mystery Nov 2016 #2
Great stuff budkin Nov 2016 #5
From Ralston - 23,500 had voted by 2 PM in Clark. Record turnout possible. 50,000? sunonmars Nov 2016 #6
Possible but there are not many votes left... MyNameIsKhan Nov 2016 #8
Ralston says Trump has to win GE day by over 13% now...lol. not gonna happen sunonmars Nov 2016 #9
Trump now needs to poach MI, PA, or WI and even that may not be enough nt geek tragedy Nov 2016 #11
For two states you mentioned: MyNameIsKhan Nov 2016 #12
No one knows the ballot count at this point. former9thward Nov 2016 #13
Yes you are right... but there has been pattern of votes over many years that can be accounted MyNameIsKhan Nov 2016 #14
I guess I like his confidence Dem2 Nov 2016 #15
I hope this pushes our Senate candidate over the top BlueProgressive Nov 2016 #16
If HRC wins with good margin, Heck is toast. MyNameIsKhan Nov 2016 #17
Correction: Total active registrations in 2016 are 1,464,819 ffr Nov 2016 #18
Ok now makes sense, thats why Roby Mook said 10% margin in morning and NV has 56% turnout last year MyNameIsKhan Nov 2016 #19
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