Latest Polls Actually Look Good for Hillary [View all]

[louis c]

When Comey's letter broke on Friday, October 28th, it appeared way worse than what it actually turned out to be. Now, it has settled in as at best a miscalculation and an appeasement to a radical faction of FBI agents stationed in New York, probably connected to Rudy Giuliani, who want to push false or misleading information to help Trump.

So, as we move away from Oct. 28th and weigh polls that are taken beginning on Nov. 1st and 2nd, they get better for Clinton each day. The ABC tracking poll bears this out. The poll went from a Trump one point lead to a Hillary 4 point lead in just four days. That's a 5 point swing in those four days. Fox News' poll falls closer to the Comey letter than ABC does, and has Clinton by 2 points, which mirrors ABC during that same time frame. The Battleground States, which appear close today, actually, in most cases, are polls that were in the field closer to Oct. 28th to Oct. 31st, therefore capturing the anti-Clinton narrative during that period. Generally speaking, State polls lag the national polls, especially if the national polls are daily tracking.

I have been following these polls as closely as anyone, living and dying with each change. What appears to me to be obvious is that with each revelation, real or concocted, about each candidate, the polls move to excess. They then move to the mean within days. From the very beginning, this is a Hillary win of about 6 points, in my opinion. That should translate to about 320 EV or so.

None of this really matters as much as the ground game and the GOTV efforts of every one of us. Whether you are part the organized effort, or you just make it easier for your family and friends to get out and vote for Hillary, by baby sitting or providing transportation to somebody without a car, the future of America is in our hands.