2016 Postmortem

underpants

(182,802 posts)

10. All right just checking. 246

Sat Nov 5, 2016, 04:40 PM

Nov 2016

Below is not the best version I have do this but, I think, it gives a good picture of the scope of the difficulty any Republican faces in a national election.

I'd heard numbers bandied about on where Democrats START national campaigns.
2012 is a good starting point. 2008 included the Indiana anomaly.

Obama 332
Romney 206
Take away from Obama's total
Nevada 6
Colorado 9
New Mexico 5
Iowa 6
Virginia 13
Ohio 18 AND Florida 29

You get 246. A Democrat has to pick up 23 Electoral College votes in any of those states to win.
The Republicans start with 206 and that includes N. Carolina.

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About the latest angst from 538... [View all] Buzz Clik Nov 2016 OP

I respect your analysis more than I do Nate Silver's at this point. StrictlyRockers Nov 2016 #1

I have no idea how he constructs his algorithms, and I am not commenting on them. HOWEVER: Buzz Clik Nov 2016 #4

538 doesn't smell right. Something just doesn't add up for me too. AgadorSparticus Nov 2016 #2

Great analysis! I gave up on 538.com. They're an outlier and not logically making sense. manicraven Nov 2016 #3

maybe old Nate has his finger on the scales dogindia Nov 2016 #5

Nate is more interested these days in clicks to his site redstateblues Nov 2016 #6

ummmm... Buzz Clik Nov 2016 #8

Thank you for your work on this. I do have a question underpants Nov 2016 #7

True. I'll explain Buzz Clik Nov 2016 #9

All right just checking. 246 underpants Nov 2016 #10

I agee with you 100% -- even though I didn't do as in-depth an analysis obamanut2012 Nov 2016 #11