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2016 Postmortem
Showing Original Post only (View all)Gallup numbers show Romney in SHARP decline. Romney intrade on SC win: massive sell off (9) [View all]
From the begining I predicted that Romney will not be the nominee, and that the Republican Party would find these clowns unworthy and start favorite sons and drafts to do it all over at the conventionGallup's rolling national poll is showing Romney having the same kind of poll collapse that Cain, Gingrich and Perry had. Rember this is a rolling poll averaging five days so it has a momentum to it that is even more significant than a regular daily poll;
PRINCETON, NJ -- Mitt Romney is a considerably weaker front-runner among Republican registered voters nationally than he was at the beginning of the week. Romney now leads Newt Gingrich by 30% to 20%, with Rick Santorum and Ron Paul tied at 13%. At the beginning of the week, Romney had a 23-percentage-point lead over Gingrich and Santorum.
The latest results, based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted Jan. 15-19, only partially reflect the potential impact of the dramatic events that have roiled the GOP presidential race this week. These include the withdrawal of two candidates (Jon Huntsman and Rick Perry) from the race, a televised interview given by Gingrich's second wife in which she discussed her former husband's extramarital affair, the continued focus on Romney's tax returns, the announcement that Santorum rather than Romney apparently won the Iowa caucuses, and a lively debate in South Carolina Thursday night in which Gingrich lashed out at the news media, and the CNN moderator in particular.
Polls in South Carolina suggest that Gingrich has a good chance of winning that state, and if so, the race could tighten further in the coming days.
Interactive poll here: http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx
Intrade has a huge Romney sell off and a big buy on Gingrich now at 65% and Romney is at 39%
https://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=750749&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com
https://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=750753&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com
http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/
Interestingly those behind the grass roots campaign for Cain have now gone 100% in for Gingrich.
http://draftcain.wordpress.com/2012/01/09/south-carolina-grassroots-boots-for-newt/
With Romney melting away and fire bomber Gingrich on the upswing the smart guys in the Republican Party are going to start looking for ways to keep this going and flush all of these clowns for a Republican Governor and start a draft movement.
Links to the other 8 post in the series predicting that Romney will not be the nominee and it will be a brokered convention here
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512491
Working hard to become the most insufferable "I told you so" series in DU history and having more fun than should be legal without sex watching Romney make a total ass out of himself.
"I told you so".
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Gallup numbers show Romney in SHARP decline. Romney intrade on SC win: massive sell off (9) [View all]
grantcart
Jan 2012
OP
I'd love to see a brokered convention. I am not are sure it will happen as you are,
morningfog
Jan 2012
#5
Latest polls from PPP showing that people who watched the debate split for Gingrich 2-1 over Romney
grantcart
Jan 2012
#9
intrade now at 90% Newt will take SC - 40% that he will take Florida and 25% that he will be the nom
Douglas Carpenter
Jan 2012
#10