Senate Dems outperforming expectations ... [View all]

[BlueMTexpat]

per Sam Wang, whose track record is even better than Nate Silver's.

http://election.princeton.edu/2014/08/28/senate-democrats-are-outperforming-expectations/

I’ve been asked why the PEC Senate poll snapshot is more favorable to Democrats than forecasts you’ll find elsewhere: NYT’s The Upshot, Washington Post’s The Monkey Cage, ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight, and Daily Kos. All of these organizations show a higher probability of a Republican takeover than today’s PEC snapshot, which favors the Democrats with a 70% probability.

Today I will show that in most cases, added assumptions (i.e. special sauce) have led the media organizations to different win probabilities – which I currently believe are wrong. I’ll then outline the subtle but important implications for a November prediction.

Keeping my fingers crossed ...