2016 Postmortem

grantcart

(53,061 posts)

10. Look at the difference in leads. Generally Obama is way up in safe blue and Romney is not

Reply to Presidentcokedupfratboy (Original post)

Mon May 28, 2012, 05:09 PM

May 2012

Moreover look at states where Romney had extensive campaigns and where they know him the best, he performs poorly.

Iowa, the more they saw the less that he liked.

Romney has 3 'home' states

NH Obama is now up 9 points in a state that Romney really has to take

Mass Obama is up 35 points in a landslide

Michigan where it shows him up only 4 points but the last large poll done there showed Obama up 18 points.

On the other hand there is AZ where McCain won big last time but the last large reliable polls show Obama only down 7. Obama takes a single swing state and Romney has to take a couple that are leaning blue. I just don't see it.

On Intrade Romney is still at 38% a very low number that reflects the map you show.

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Electoral map [View all] Presidentcokedupfratboy May 2012 OP

This gives him the win without CO & WI (which would bring him up to 303 EVs). Looks good. n/t jenmito May 2012 #1

Well even less error for Mittens... WI_DEM May 2012 #2

Wisconsin.... BlueDemKev Jun 2012 #26

So according to this map SoutherDem May 2012 #3

Not sure what polls you are looking at. former9thward May 2012 #4

That is a poll of polls. There is no margin of error Cali_Democrat May 2012 #6

It is not a "poll of polls". former9thward May 2012 #7

Yes...it is an average Cali_Democrat May 2012 #16

Obama wins the popular vote even if this country falls in a DEPRESSION bigdarryl May 2012 #19

I definitely agree. cheezmaka Jun 2012 #22

Obama in Excellent Shape Based on this Map With only 73 EV in Toss Up Category Indykatie May 2012 #5

Obama still has many more paths to 270 than Romney does. racaulk May 2012 #8

Its interesting to see how these maps and polls are shaping up Happydayz May 2012 #9

Look at the difference in leads. Generally Obama is way up in safe blue and Romney is not grantcart May 2012 #10

Mittens is only leading by single digits in states where he should by leading by double digits pstokely May 2012 #13

thats what I'm trying to tell people liberalnationalist May 2012 #17

The best plan for the Republicans SoutherDem May 2012 #20

CO Youth Vote Will Be BIG otohara May 2012 #11

If you can get enough California kids at CU to register in CO pstokely May 2012 #14

HuffPo? FarCenter Fan May 2012 #12

Still, I llike the map Presidentcokedupfratboy May 2012 #15

Obama is actually slightly ahead in all tossup states except NC and MO yellowcanine May 2012 #18

Gonna say it right now.. FLORIDA will go to Romney. Just because Jeb probably still has the fraud Laura PourMeADrink Jun 2012 #24

L.A. Times Data Desk cheezmaka Jun 2012 #21

Based on yesterday's job numbers Presidentcokedupfratboy Jun 2012 #23

Don't think PA will go to the dark side. They just witnessed Republican Santorum make a Laura PourMeADrink Jun 2012 #25