2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: The one thing that will stop Bernie Sanders.....his supporters [View all]MineralMan
(146,329 posts)I suppose it will affect the Sanders campaign in a negative way, though, and he doesn't need that, certainly. Right now, his poll numbers seem to be stuck at the 20% or so level. My educated guess is that he'll continue to poll at about that level, right up to the early primary election.
He has some enthusiastic supporters. He also has some anti-Clinton folks who are using his candidacy as an excuse to further the attack against her. It can be difficult to tell the two groups apart at times. As things stand now, Hillary Clinton will sail through the primaries and cast her nomination in concrete by Super Tuesday.
If Biden enters the race, that would have some impact, probably on both Clinton and Sanders. He'll pull some polling numbers from both, I have no doubt. But, I don't think he really wants a primary or general election battle, and he'll be a solid Clinton supporter in the end, along with President Obama. Biden is already in a lot of the polls, and gets numbers just below Sanders in those polls. Iowa and New Hampshire show better numbers for Sanders, but even there Clinton has a substantial lead.
What I'm not seeing is any increase in Sanders' numbers over time. It looks to me as though he has attracted supporters, but far from enough to win the nomination. The polls showing that Hillary Clinton has high unpopularity ratings are polls of ALL voters, so they reveal that Republicans don't like her. Big surprise there.
As I've said before, I simply do not see any path for Sanders to win enough primaries to have a chance at the nomination. Unless we see significant growth in his numbers in these early polls, I won't change my opinion. I believe he has peaked, and peaked far too early.
Finally, anyone who can convince him or herself that the voting blocks of PoC and women don't really matter simply doesn't understand electoral politics in the United States. Those votes are solidly in the Clinton camp, and won't be turned with insults and attacks. That won't happen.
That's my educated guess about where things are right now. Unless something changes significantly and soon, my January prediction that Hillary Clinton will be the nominee stands. I'm a Bernie Sanders supporter on issues grounds, but I'm also an observer of real-life politics, and I don't give him much of a chance of making significant gains.