2016 Postmortem
Showing Original Post only (View all)538: "This Is How Bernie Sanders Could Win" [View all]
Excerpts from the analysis:
Presidential primaries can be about momentum. You win Iowa, you win New Hampshire, and the skys the limit. You saw that with John Kerry in 2004 on the Democratic side. You saw that with Jimmy Carter in 1976. Carter, especially, was someone who sort of came out of nowhere the outsider candidate, if you will. So the first thing that Sanders likely needs is to win the first caucus and the first primary.
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Let me say one thing that has changed in recent Democratic politics. If Gallups numbers are to be believed, there are more self-identified liberals than at any point in the last 15 years among the Democratic base:
And, of course, Sanders is doing best among self-identified liberals. So he has more of a chance this year than in past years.