Not sure any national polling correlates with "reality" (Reply #36)

In the discussion thread: Uh oh, the Pollster.com trendline has finally caught up with reality [View all]

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 04:30 PM

kenn3d (486 posts)

36. Not sure any national polling correlates with "reality"

But I'll still offer my perspective...

Let's just consider the net trend over the last 2 months (as referred to above), defined by just the 4 data points for the 2 candidates starting at Aug 8 and ending today at Oct 8. You know, just eliminating those laggy smoothed curve lines altogether.
The following data is taken from the very exact same chart shown in the OP. No curves, no lags, no smoothing at all.
8/8 Clinton 52.0 Sanders 19.7
10/8 Clinton 43.6 Sanders 25.4
delta Clinton -8.4 Sanders +5.7
Net spread delta = Sanders +14.1 over 60 days.

Friends, this honestly doesn't reflect either a plateau or any significant change in the trends for either of these candidates since May... imo.
And btw, the latest rolly poll from Reuters which got added in this afternoon shows a negligible additional change of Clinton -2 / Sanders +2 since last week. But it doesn't really affect the chart or the spread, and based mainly on Godhumor's sound advice, I'm inclined to ignore that poll anyway.

Anything can happen.... GOTV!

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59 replies	Author	Time	Post
Uh oh, the Pollster.com trendline has finally caught up with reality [View all]	Godhumor	Oct 2015	OP
I don't think anyone cares	ram2008	Oct 2015	#1
Second that	jkbRN	Oct 2015	#3
third that. we're about to enter a new phase. nt	magical thyme	Oct 2015	#4
I don't think anyone cares	DemocratSinceBirth	Oct 2015	#6
I'm sure we'll find out	ram2008	Oct 2015	#7
Yes, we will find out. We have someone who has had several dozen national debates	stevenleser	Oct 2015	#14
It's called passion...	ram2008	Oct 2015	#16
It's not passion. Its arrogance and impatience and he is known to have that personality. nt	stevenleser	Oct 2015	#17
The people seem to like his personality	ram2008	Oct 2015	#18
The people rarely see it. We saw a little of it with his interaction with BLM. nt	stevenleser	Oct 2015	#19
People usually don't react well when others interrupt them and yell in their face...	ram2008	Oct 2015	#20
You're supposed to react well if you expect to be at the national level. It's not about you.	stevenleser	Oct 2015	#21
I think he's been pretty consistent on the issues	ram2008	Oct 2015	#23
Nice try at changing the subject. His personality will become clear during the six debates.	stevenleser	Oct 2015	#25
His personality is already evident	Armstead	Oct 2015	#46
You act like you've never seen the way Hillary acts.	Fawke Em	Oct 2015	#56
And what did we see when Clinton talked over a Latino protestor?	jeff47	Oct 2015	#52
Oh, good grief.	Hissyspit	Oct 2015	#26
If this bothers you, tell it to Bernie. nt	stevenleser	Oct 2015	#29
Silly season. nt	Hissyspit	Oct 2015	#30
Yes, of course! Because no one has ever mentioned the idea of being Presidential before for	stevenleser	Oct 2015	#33
irritable, impatient and cranky	frylock	Oct 2015	#27
There it is again.....	bkkyosemite	Oct 2015	#31
Yep. nt	stevenleser	Oct 2015	#32
So you support the Rovian candidate, eh? The liar? I quote you below (emphasis mine)	Luminous Animal	Oct 2015	#35
We now have a lot more to go on regarding Hillary, don't we? We have six years of SecState	stevenleser	Oct 2015	#38
Do you repudiate your own reporting that Hillary lied about NAFTA?	Luminous Animal	Oct 2015	#39
LOL, if you are going to throw that kind of drama, give me time to pull out my violin.	stevenleser	Oct 2015	#40
That was a try.	Luminous Animal	Oct 2015	#41
So, what changed your mind about Hillary? Bernie as we now, and the public is finding out daily,	sabrina 1	Oct 2015	#58
Lol!	sabrina 1	Oct 2015	#57
What Bernie does not have time for a flip-flopping bullshit artist of a hack that calls himself..	Time_Lord	Oct 2015	#59
Thats true	workinclasszero	Oct 2015	#9
Not likely since the more face time she gives the public, the less they like her.	closeupready	Oct 2015	#11
and then you can drink the lovely, lovely salt tears of the Sanders supporters!	ish of the hammer	Oct 2015	#15
This message was self-deleted by its author	DemocratSinceBirth	Oct 2015	#43
Then you woke up!	DemocratSinceBirth	Oct 2015	#44
woke up to what?	ish of the hammer	Oct 2015	#47
enjoy those salty tears	DemocratSinceBirth	Oct 2015	#48
that reminds me	ish of the hammer	Oct 2015	#49
My gf bought me that iconic photo framed	DemocratSinceBirth	Oct 2015	#50
Why does everyone assume the debates will make a significant difference?	hack89	Oct 2015	#10
No kidding.	zappaman	Oct 2015	#37
There has actually been a lot of research...	DemocratSinceBirth	Oct 2015	#51
That same research shows primary debates have an effect	jeff47	Oct 2015	#53
Yep.	Iliyah	Oct 2015	#2
An overlooked tidbit - 20% of voters made up their minds since Jan, and Hillary got ZERO of them.	reformist2	Oct 2015	#5
Bernie had peaked and Hillary is in the lead	upaloopa	Oct 2015	#54
Take Biden off the poll....	BooScout	Oct 2015	#8
...or perhaps they go DOWN. Who knows?	Buns_of_Fire	Oct 2015	#12
Agree that he shouldn't be included, but there are mountains of data that his support goes back to C	Godhumor	Oct 2015	#13
They go up. We know. Because the polling agencies ask the question. nt	stevenleser	Oct 2015	#34
no	Rosa Luxemburg	Oct 2015	#42
Hang on to that tbought while you still can.	99Forever	Oct 2015	#22
Well	Aerows	Oct 2015	#24
Good, Hill will have a ton of confidence going into the debates.	oasis	Oct 2015	#28
Not sure any national polling correlates with "reality"	kenn3d	Oct 2015	#36
Here's another view with shorter date range clearly showing Bernie leveling off.	DCBob	Oct 2015	#45
Predictions are so hard though, especially about the future.	kenn3d	Oct 2015	#55

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