2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Uh oh, the Pollster.com trendline has finally caught up with reality [View all]kenn3d
(486 posts)Try to granulize this:
The graph above is the standard HuffPost Model (not customized) but with the date range set to 30 days (9/8-10/8).
It gets kinda hard to spot the surges in this view but it sure seems like everybody's sorta leveled off... I guess we're ALL berned out huh?
So even though you can't tell shitfromshinola to look at a "trend" graph over such a short time range, and because ALL the data points across this range have a greater MoE than any perceptable plotted slopes over the period... Here's the actual data:
Sept 8 Clinton 45.8 Sanders 24.4
Oct 8 Clinton 43.9 Sanders 24.8
Clinton still falling -1.9%
Sanders still rising +.4% (or maybe that's a plateau, but it sure beats STILL FALLING)
Net spread delta = Sanders +2.3% over 30 days.
OOOHHHHH NOES!!!! SOOOOO CLOSE!!!!
Sanders' net rise rate has slowed to only 2.3%/mo. Actual spread is roughly 17%. Only 5 months left until Super Tuesday! (2.3*5=11.5%) So assuming that Bernie's surge is really over and he doesn't rise any faster ... And assuming that Hillary can hang on to her tattered parachute and doesn't fall any faster... or Bill doesn't step on his tongue (or any of about a million other scenarios don't happen)...
CLINTON WINS BY A 5.5% LANDSLIDE!!!!! (+/- 5.4% MoE)
That's it, game over.
Sure hope she can beat Trump!
jk friends
I predict: Anything can happen... (and probably will).