2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Hillary Clinton Hasn't Won ANYTHING Yet [View all]MADem
(135,425 posts)And their hearts and endorsements say CLINTON CLINTON CLINTON.
Sanders has ... what? ONE super delegate? Two, maybe? Oh wait--NPR says he's found EIGHT!
If you can't see that as an issue and a problem, well, I can't help you. His own PEERS, in the House AND the Senate, have turned their backs on him. After a while, the handwriting is on the wall.
The problem with that scenario you envision is expecting these "people" to vote for a candidate who hasn't ever reached out to help a fellow legislator, but most importantly, has not demonstrated the ability to win on Super Tuesday.
The votes will not "go to Bernie." At best, for Bernie, it will be close, and then the super delegates will put Clinton over the top. At best, for Clinton, it will be a righteous pounding, and the super delegates will add to her aura of invincibility.
So, if there's any "enjoying" to do, you go on and have your dreams now, because odds are good to excellent you will not have them later. Here's an article on the "magic" of "superdelegatry" for you to examine--Sanders has to dig his way out of a hole to break even, and from there, he needs to get enough delegates to win. That's just not going to happen:
http://www.npr.org/2015/11/13/455812702/clinton-has-45-to-1-superdelegate-advantage-over-sanders
.....these numbers mean Clinton has already gotten 15 percent of the delegates needed two months before any voting has begun. In other words, Clinton starts with a 15 percentage point head start over Sanders.
What's more, superdelegates have a greater importance than raw numbers. That's because the way they lean, political scientists have found, is one of the best predictors of who will become the nominee.
"What's highly correlated with who becomes the nominee is the number of party elite endorsements a candidate has in the year before the election," UCLA political scientist Lynn Vavreck told NPR's Sam Sanders in a story last month. "The idea is not that anybody hears that someone has endorsed you and then that sways their vote. The idea is that party elites have a sense of who is viable and electable as a candidate. They have unique insider knowledge about this."
It's remarkable that this many would come forward on the record this early. In most cycles, many of the leaders wait until results in their states.
What accounts for this? The Clintons have a deep history with Democratic Party politics Bill, of course, being a former president.
Sanders, on the other hand, has never been a registered Democrat and does not have the kind of party roots that the Clintons have. That has made it very difficult for Sanders to break through with the party elite.