Obama opens up six-point lead on Romney nationally (ABC News/Washington Post poll)...

[Drunken Irishman]

21. Who said any of the southern states were in the bag?

But, since you asked, I think Obama has a strong shot of taking Virginia, North Carolina and Florida - or at least one of those states.

Regardless, the national polls point to Obama winning in an electoral landslide. If he wins the national popular vote by six points in November, his path to victory will mirror 2008. You're not going to trounce in the popular vote like that and lose the election. Even Al Gore, who won the popular vote, but lost the electoral college, still only managed to beat Bush by less than a percentage point (.5 to be exact) and his national victory was only 544,000 votes.

That's why national polls matter. If you're winning by six nationally, you're probably taking a couple of those southern states and most every swing state. Unless Obama racks 70-80% of the vote in states like California or New York, it's almost impossible for Obama to lose in '12 with a popular vote exceeding 5%.