2016 Postmortem

gkhouston

(21,642 posts)

48. Even a blue dog boosts the number of Dems vs. Republicans.

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 09:16 AM

Sep 2012

Don't just think of what a yahoo you've got running as a Dem in your district... remember committee chairs will go to the party with the most members. In the words of a local Dem I used to know, "He may be a butt, be he's our butt."

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Nate Silver: Obama now almost at 80% win probability. [View all] RedSpartan Sep 2012 OP

Now we're talking. Great news. I still want it to be 100%. Booster Sep 2012 #1

I don't think you get to 100% until a few days after the election. tclambert Sep 2012 #35

Oh, ok then, I want 95% now. lol Booster Sep 2012 #39

Chuck Todd would call this "a toss up" Doctor Jack Sep 2012 #2

ha ha ha the Toadster is feeling uncomfy flamingdem Sep 2012 #3

Poor Chuck Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Sep 2012 #12

LOL SunSeeker Sep 2012 #15

Who is this man, Chuck Todd? Should I know of him? jonthebru Sep 2012 #32

Host of 'The Daily Rundown' on MSNBC fleur-de-lisa Sep 2012 #33

Yeah.... ProudToBeBlueInRhody Sep 2012 #40

Inevitability is great, but let's not get lazy flamingdem Sep 2012 #4

reverse logic-We should shout it aloud all day long-Obama has it won graham4anything Sep 2012 #8

I agree the momentum is excellent and will help for sure with undecideds flamingdem Sep 2012 #10

That's called the bandwagon effect. tclambert Sep 2012 #36

at some point, even billionaires come to their senses graham4anything Sep 2012 #45

Thanks for the link. Hadn't seen that one before. tclambert Sep 2012 #50

this site has been accurate both in 04 and 08 graham4anything Sep 2012 #51

Princeton Election Consortuim is also great: RedSpartan Sep 2012 #52

wow - throughout the day this has improved significantly - even Now cast. NRaleighLiberal Sep 2012 #5

you must be psychic! tomm2thumbs Sep 2012 #43

if so, I need to find a way to make some $$$ on such talent! NRaleighLiberal Sep 2012 #47

Plus 76.9% in the "Now-cast"... regnaD kciN Sep 2012 #6

Agree 100%. Was very glad to see that as well. RedSpartan Sep 2012 #7

What is Now-cast? Thx! Nt PCIntern Sep 2012 #9

That's the prediction of who would win if the election was held right now Marsala Sep 2012 #11

Has anyone thought that perhaps Karl Rove and the Koch Bothers INdemo Sep 2012 #13

WooHoo! applegrove Sep 2012 #14

Mandate, landslide, safeinOhio Sep 2012 #16

A girl can only dream...... kalli007 Sep 2012 #21

Obligatory intrade BumRushDaShow Sep 2012 #17

Does he forecast Senate and House races? OneGrassRoot Sep 2012 #18

I wish I could vote Democrat all the way! Kteachums Sep 2012 #22

Even a blue dog boosts the number of Dems vs. Republicans. gkhouston Sep 2012 #48

One Grass is right! thelarge Sep 2012 #19

If everybody gets your behinds out there and vote! Kteachums Sep 2012 #20

Post removed Post removed Sep 2012 #23

I have been watching Intrade and Romney's chances went down after the Republican Convention Quixote1818 Sep 2012 #24

Has Nate Silver ever been wrong? nt Quixote1818 Sep 2012 #25

It's hard to say since he puts everything in terms of probabilities. tclambert Sep 2012 #37

I guess the only state he missed in the last election was Indiana which Obama won by 1 point nt Quixote1818 Sep 2012 #38

Not only do we need to support Obama... tarheelsunc Sep 2012 #26

I get what you are saying, but could we please limit the truedelphi Sep 2012 #30

Polls are one thing... RoccoR5955 Sep 2012 #27

Obama's poll numbers sugggest his beggest supporters are among the youngest truedelphi Sep 2012 #31

they were back in '08 also RoccoR5955 Sep 2012 #41

We still need to work hard! Register people to vote and Get Out The Vote!!!!! LongTomH Sep 2012 #28

Does he calculate the probablity of Repub Secretaries of State and poll workers cheating?? Maineman Sep 2012 #29

Any links to what the upcoming elections might mean for the House though? After all if the cstanleytech Sep 2012 #34

Some bad news - his numbers just went down tomm2thumbs Sep 2012 #42

80.7% krawhitham Sep 2012 #44

I just saw that. GOOD NEWS! MNBrewer Sep 2012 #46

And today, electoral-vote.com has it 347-191... No DUplicitous DUpe Sep 2012 #49

This tends to happen when the other candidate hides all his views EdwardKingSolomon Sep 2012 #53