2016 Postmortem

Bleacher Creature

(11,504 posts)

100. I'm sorry, but this just isn't consistent with reality.

Sat Dec 26, 2015, 03:22 PM

Dec 2015

I like and respect Bernie Sanders and his supporters. On policy, he's probably a lot closer to me than HRC, but to suggest that he'd be a better candidate in November is silly.

Democrats win when Democrats turn out to vote. Right now, Sanders can't even get more than a third of Democrats to support him. He's a one issue candidate who is stuck at around 30 percent in the polls. Even in states like Iowa and NH, which are completely unrepresentative of what the Democratic base looks like, he's losing in one and hanging on by a thread in the other. Once the campaign moves out of those states, things only get tougher for him (which is pretty much the opposite of what Obama was facing in 2008).

And finally, the idea that Republicans and the mythological "independent" voter won't be as ginned up to vote against Sanders is nonsense. All you have to do is to look at how quickly they demonized Obama to see what comes next.

I'm sorry, Bernie is a fine guy who is on the right side of many issues. But all that being said, loyal Democrats aren't going to be enthusiastically turning out for a guy who spent 30 years bashing other Democrats, which is exactly why it's looking more and more like his campaign will almost certainly be over by the first week of March, at the latest.

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I think we can put to bed the "We have to vote for Hillary or the Republicans win" argument. [View all] Dustlawyer Dec 2015 OP

Bernie is not viable in general election Gothmog Dec 2015 #1

Independents, Republican cross over appeal, first time voters and discouraged voters. tazkcmo Dec 2015 #2

Excellent point. A conveniently overlooked excellent point. Enthusiast Dec 2015 #35

Not true. She would win Independents 43 to 36 against Trump. SunSeeker Dec 2015 #62

Women will vote for Clinton. I expect many former GOP women, women who pnwmom Dec 2015 #152

personally, i do not know any women voting for hillary ~ hopemountain Dec 2015 #182

I'm a woman. I won't vote for her. Hun Joro Dec 2015 #184

One of my young relatives lives in San Francisco pnwmom Dec 2015 #185

Must be isolated pockets nt Plucketeer Dec 2015 #195

Woman will vote for hillary yikes1 Dec 2015 #211

Well, his viability in the primary certainly seems to disprove your assertion Android3.14 Dec 2015 #3

She has very few, We the People donors. Many are angry that a 1%er would contact them by email DhhD Dec 2015 #47

How? Sanders is being given a 6% chance of being the nominee Gothmog Dec 2015 #92

That 6% is for being the nominee, not for winning the GE Android3.14 Dec 2015 #94

We are in the primary process and you are free to vote for who you want for any reason you want Gothmog Dec 2015 #98

Your logic is incorrect, and therefore a bad strategy Android3.14 Dec 2015 #99

You are wrong Gothmog Dec 2015 #106

The data shows Sanders can win the GE better than Clinton Android3.14 Dec 2015 #121

Can you explain how Sanders is viable in a general election contest? Gothmog Dec 2015 #133

Bad data, bad assumptions. Android3.14 Dec 2015 #137

But Clinton will have super pacs and other support in the general election Gothmog Dec 2015 #145

Money does not win campaigns Android3.14 Dec 2015 #148

Assuming there is any GOP fundraising. The Golden One Dec 2015 #153

The Koch brothers wrote off 2016 The Golden One Dec 2015 #151

All the polls say you are wrong. bvar22 Dec 2015 #123

If you really believe this, then vote for Sanders Gothmog Dec 2015 #131

What is "adequated" financing? Some kind of magic that someone is "blessing" Clinton with? cascadiance Dec 2015 #147

How do you know Bernie won't raise enough money for the GE? Bernblu Dec 2015 #198

President Obama had the best fundraising machine in history and he needed a super pac Gothmog Dec 2015 #212

add +1 to the "Bernie is unelectable" meme counter. nt antigop Dec 2015 #213

Meh - it also had Jeb winning the GOP nomination in August. Fawke Em Dec 2015 #112

And today, Predictwise has Jeb! at 10% Gothmog Dec 2015 #115

And you're gonna vote for Bernie when he's the nominee, right? Fawke Em Dec 2015 #208

While money is an issue, his greatly increased publicity will garner a lot more supporters/voters/ Dustlawyer Dec 2015 #4

If he beats Hillary, he can win the general. LuvNewcastle Dec 2015 #10

That simply doesn't seem realistic Orrex Dec 2015 #18

She is determined to win, and has already LuvNewcastle Dec 2015 #22

Again, I don't think that's realistic Orrex Dec 2015 #28

Lets see if dirty Rovian tricks can be added in, after the findings of the DNC/DWS investigation DhhD Dec 2015 #55

That might be relevant in the primary. *Might* be... Orrex Dec 2015 #60

It was battle-tested by FDR even with his own family voting against him. This country still DhhD Dec 2015 #188

battle test this quoddy woman Dec 2015 #37

I hate sports analogies, but... Ned_Devine Dec 2015 #43

By that logic, my 84 year old neighbor will be our next president Orrex Dec 2015 #57

So then, the argument is that we have to give in to and be a parrt of allowing the 1%, the JDPriestly Dec 2015 #82

'We simply cannot afford Hillary. She is not in our price range.' well said JDPriestly. sorechasm Dec 2015 #89

It must be so convenient to be a Sanders supporter Orrex Dec 2015 #103

Bernie has campaigned against well funded opponents over and over. JDPriestly Dec 2015 #162

In the second-smallest constituency in the union Orrex Dec 2015 #164

What makes me believe that Sanders is prepared for the GOP? JDPriestly Dec 2015 #167

More platitudes Orrex Dec 2015 #170

Hillary's ideas are weak. I don't think she can win with them. JDPriestly Dec 2015 #171

"Every once in a while in our history the little guys win. " Orrex Dec 2015 #173

Hear hear! +100 Karma13612 Dec 2015 #110

I keep hearing that but are you saying that the GOP will be 'nicer' to Hillary? azurnoir Dec 2015 #174

Why would you think that I'm saying that? I've said nothing like that. Orrex Dec 2015 #183

Sanders is up to a 6% chances of being the nominee Gothmog Dec 2015 #77

Your giving Sanders a 6% chance of being the Democratic nominee is wishful thinking. Here Cal33 Dec 2015 #93

Predictwise is the successor to Intrade Gothmog Dec 2015 #95

What a joke-the kids who ran this mock election ignore the DNC rules Gothmog Dec 2015 #97

They predicted who would win in the generl elections, and they have never been wrong Cal33 Dec 2015 #142

You are welcome to rely on this flawed but funny mock election Gothmog Dec 2015 #144

Their accuracy is 100%. They have never been wrong in 40 years. You may call it funny, but Cal33 Dec 2015 #163

The fact that anyone would rely on a mock election that gives most of the Texas delegates to Sanders Gothmog Dec 2015 #176

The only way to be sure is to wait until Nov.8, 2016. Until then, have a good 10 months. Cal33 Dec 2015 #187

No, we will know that this prediction is bogus on Super Tuesday Gothmog Dec 2015 #189

Okay, Super Tuesday, it is. And I'm not interested in being a businessman. Never was; Cal33 Dec 2015 #209

I think this is true SoLeftIAmRight Dec 2015 #120

Sanders started out at .8 percent in Iowa CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #64

Iowa and NH are homogeneous States. He'll hit a firewall in SC. BlueCaliDem Dec 2015 #84

Your comment that Iowa is homogeneous is offensive CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #91

According to Nate Silver, Sanders can win both Iowa and NH and still not be the nominee Gothmog Dec 2015 #101

Iowa and HN...may be only *two states* CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #102

I trust Nate Silver on this Gothmog Dec 2015 #108

I get it... CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #111

No, I just know that demographics are what control elections and the primary process Gothmog Dec 2015 #113

I think Latino and African American voters... CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #117

Sanders supporters have been making this claim for months now Gothmog Dec 2015 #122

Texas has three times the number of delegates as Iowa and NH combined Gothmog Dec 2015 #218

add +1 to the "Bernie is unelectable" meme counter. nt antigop Dec 2015 #214

Ignoring an issue will not make that issue go away Gothmog Dec 2015 #219

add +1 to the "Bernie is unelectable" meme counter. nt antigop Dec 2015 #221

My apologies, but it is true...and it's only offensive if you choose see it that way and, BlueCaliDem Dec 2015 #105

You have no idea what you are talking about CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #109

How does this theory fit with the complaints that Sanders is being ignored by the media? Gothmog Dec 2015 #76

that is true -- Hillary has nowhere to GROW grasswire Dec 2015 #87

If Lessig really wanted to help AllyCat Dec 2015 #7

Do you think that if you say it enough..... daleanime Dec 2015 #9

So you're saying Hillary supporters A Simple Game Dec 2015 #11

I will support and vote for the Democratic candidate Gothmog Dec 2015 #80

add +1 to the "Bernie is unelectable" meme counter. nt antigop Dec 2015 #215

Three reasons: 1) 2015 spending trend; 2) untapped donations 3) local volunteers sorechasm Dec 2015 #19

^^^This!^^^ peacebird Dec 2015 #26

^^This!^^^^^This!^^^ 90-percent Dec 2015 #36

add +1 to the "Bernie is unelectable" meme counter. nt antigop Dec 2015 #29

Baloney. This argument has been trotted out over and over. Given Bernie's having overcome many GoneFishin Dec 2015 #31

And yet Sanders is only at 6% chance of being the nominee Gothmog Dec 2015 #88

Another poll-driven Hillarite The Golden One Dec 2015 #158

Bernie would landslide them AgingAmerican Dec 2015 #41

This sounds like: artislife Dec 2015 #50

Lessig is one voice. Bernie will win. Our voices count the most and he is the one who can turn roguevalley Dec 2015 #56

Bernie is a socialist: with very few qualifications for leading lewebley3 Dec 2015 #66

yyyaaaaawwwwwnnnnnn. #FeeltheBern!!! eom Karma13612 Dec 2015 #114

You are aware that Bernie's small donor efforts have already exceeded Obama's, then? LiberalAndProud Dec 2015 #68

And President Obama used a super pac in 2012 Gothmog Dec 2015 #75

Yes. We are owned and we'd best face up to it. LiberalAndProud Dec 2015 #125

The only way that we can change Citizens United is win 2016 election Gothmog Dec 2015 #130

Your optimism is attractive. LiberalAndProud Dec 2015 #141

Hillary Clinton�s litmus test for Supreme Court nominees: a pledge to overturn Citizens United Gothmog Dec 2015 #146

As promises go, I was schooled by the absence of the public option. LiberalAndProud Dec 2015 #156

Obama and most, if not all, Democrats want something done on Citizens United Gothmog Dec 2015 #161

natter and natter. LiberalAndProud Dec 2015 #169

How Sanders will be viable in GE? Do you really want to know, or are you just being rhetorical here? 99th_Monkey Dec 2015 #74

Wait! catnhatnh Dec 2015 #79

The DNC and most Democracts (myself included) would support Sanders if he is the nominee Gothmog Dec 2015 #81

If Bernie's message about the billionaire class continues to resonate... ljm2002 Dec 2015 #86

Lol, goal posts moving again At first he 'didn't have a chance of even being noticed, was going to sabrina 1 Dec 2015 #172

We are in the primary process and you are free to vote for who you want for any reason you want Gothmog Dec 2015 #178

So I guess You're Saying, quite Clearly I might Add... CorporatistNation Dec 2015 #175

Not at all-I and the DNC will support the nominee of the party Gothmog Dec 2015 #177

Simple math: Sanders voters call X and the HRC voters call Y. rhett o rick Dec 2015 #180

Your logic is really sad in that you assume that Sanders is viable in a general election Gothmog Dec 2015 #190

And you define "viable" by how much money he can raise. Now that's sad. rhett o rick Dec 2015 #197

In the real world money is important in elections Gothmog Dec 2015 #199

So we should sell out to big money and forget about solving the poverty problems. Well go ahead. rhett o rick Dec 2015 #201

The problem with Hillary is voters will stay home she is the 2016 Romney, picked by the people Todays_Illusion Dec 2015 #193

Same was said for FDR (socialist) and JFK (Catholic). Same BS, different person Feeling the Bern Dec 2015 #207

Keep trying to put a good man down. tecelote Dec 2015 #5

+1000000 SammyWinstonJack Dec 2015 #17

to the 10th power! eom. Karma13612 Dec 2015 #116

Bernie IS the one polling much further ahead of the republican candidates. ViseGrip Dec 2015 #6

Because the Republicans won't gladly do everything they can to hang the word mythology Dec 2015 #8

BSers like to downplay the "socialist" redstateblues Dec 2015 #13

Tail Gunner Joe called... 99Forever Dec 2015 #20

Yeah right. It will be a huge asset redstateblues Dec 2015 #25

Fuck the Republicans and the Red Scare fear you share with them. 99Forever Dec 2015 #27

You're in denial, and your hostility is a revelation Orrex Dec 2015 #30

no one is saying the repubs won't come after Sanders. But they will be at least Karma13612 Dec 2015 #119

You mean the late Trey Gowdy? Orrex Dec 2015 #160

Hit a real nerve there redstateblues Dec 2015 #166

it's enough to keep me from supporting him in the primary hfojvt Dec 2015 #48

Repubs called Obama much worse names the second time around. safeinOhio Dec 2015 #61

give an example hfojvt Dec 2015 #70

I don't think he is a "Socialist", he is a Democratic Socialist. safeinOhio Dec 2015 #73

Think it is from the 1950s? 99Forever Dec 2015 #63

Were you perhaps there hfojvt Dec 2015 #72

Is there some part of... 99Forever Dec 2015 #78

The GOP have been calling everydemocrat since FDR a socialist. Paka Dec 2015 #168

This one has a lot of posts that sound like 1952. nt artislife Dec 2015 #54

I think some of those 50% are persuadable thesquanderer Dec 2015 #24

Excellent points. Enthusiast Dec 2015 #38

Yes. "Those who are most virulently anti-socialist (including that contingent who call Obama TryLogic Dec 2015 #44

To change a position like that takes money Gothmog Dec 2015 #90

I am thinking it's useless to try to convince you otherwise. But, here goes: Are you aware that Karma13612 Dec 2015 #124

So money does not matter and Twitter and youtube are magic. Gothmog Dec 2015 #135

They'll be redbaiting like crazy around the clock Nyan Dec 2015 #39

Vermont has a large contingent of Republicans and even more Independents. RichVRichV Dec 2015 #71

OK, so in the world of HRC supporters, Republicans are gonna quit being obstructionists... Ned Flanders Dec 2015 #159

Astute observation Populist_Prole Dec 2015 #205

Liberals need to grow a spine and stop cringing because Republicans criticize us. Maedhros Dec 2015 #202

Nope. eom MohRokTah Dec 2015 #12

I doubt it. Cassiopeia Dec 2015 #14

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2015 #15

I, for one agree. Amimnoch Dec 2015 #16

I think Bernie loses to a center-right candidate firebrand80 Dec 2015 #21

I've never argued that dbackjon Dec 2015 #23

Actually, they better start lining up behind Bernie if they're concerned about NorthCarolina Dec 2015 #32

That is a very important point. Duval Dec 2015 #69

that's always been a baseless excuse, not a good reason from Hillarians stupidicus Dec 2015 #33

The Republicans are facing a graver saltpoint Dec 2015 #34

Huge +1! Enthusiast Dec 2015 #40

Fact: Bernie is more electable than Hillary! Helen Borg Dec 2015 #42

I AGREE TryLogic Dec 2015 #45

I think polls even agree. TryLogic Dec 2015 #46

It won't be Trump leading the R ticket JustABozoOnThisBus Dec 2015 #49

Agree that the country club bunch saltpoint Dec 2015 #53

I will vote 4 whomever gets the nomination dembotoz Dec 2015 #51

If Bernie would win the Dem nomination, he would face - OhZone Dec 2015 #52

If Hillary wins the Dem nomination, she will face... Ino Dec 2015 #58

All of Clinton's dirty laundry has been aired for decades now Gothmog Dec 2015 #85

Which is not going to prevent the GOP from inventing new ones. They always do. It Cal33 Dec 2015 #96

How well did this work in the recent Benghazi hearings? Gothmog Dec 2015 #140

..and it will ALL be brought out again....and MORE. bvar22 Dec 2015 #126

But, the HUGE problem with Hillary is that there are always more surfacing Karma13612 Dec 2015 #128

And Hillary wouldn't also face a billion dollars of negative ads? SheilaT Dec 2015 #59

Any Democrat going into the General will face the RW money and smears. Bernie is Dustlawyer Dec 2015 #65

The country needs to gear up libodem Dec 2015 #67

The above polling ignores the effect of $300 million of more in negative ads Gothmog Dec 2015 #83

You do realize both of those polls/stats are between 4 and 5 YEARS old Karma13612 Dec 2015 #132

I bet that the GOP has more recent polling Gothmog Dec 2015 #134

That doesn't mean your polling is still accurate Karma13612 Dec 2015 #138

I'm sorry, but this just isn't consistent with reality. Bleacher Creature Dec 2015 #100

+1 nt NurseJackie Dec 2015 #107

So the Democrats supporting Hillary clinton in December... Scootaloo Dec 2015 #136

Voter turnout is the #1 issue facing Democrats in every national election. Bleacher Creature Dec 2015 #143

where did they say that in that post? Skittles Dec 2015 #179

The "one issue candidate" meme has been shown to be just that, a meme MANY times. cui bono Dec 2015 #165

Hillary is the one issue candidate Doctor_J Dec 2015 #186

So primary polls are unreliable Dem2 Dec 2015 #104

Hillary would mobilize the Republican base - YES SoLeftIAmRight Dec 2015 #118

Kicked and recommended. Uncle Joe Dec 2015 #127

Last night on Coast to Coast Am with George Noory, truedelphi Dec 2015 #129

Well, Seth said it, then I guess we can relax Android3.14 Dec 2015 #154

That source is just as reliable as the mock election from the kids who are clueless as to poltics Gothmog Dec 2015 #191

YES WE CAN - even when Obama didn't. eom Betty Karlson Dec 2015 #139

It's actually quite amazing how Bernie is left of center and yet has cross over appeal. liberal_at_heart Dec 2015 #149

Bernie has never had the Rethugs aim all their guns at him. When they do -- pnwmom Dec 2015 #150

"you don't CARE if Trump wins!" say the ones who want the weaker-polling candidate to win MisterP Dec 2015 #155

That's why I call people everyday for Bernie and 99% of the rest of us . n/t orpupilofnature57 Dec 2015 #157

That stuff just simply isn't true. George II Dec 2015 #181

That argument never worked on me anyway. liberal_at_heart Dec 2015 #192

He won't be a drag on the ticket. Babel_17 Dec 2015 #194

IMHO - A Vote For HRC In The Primary Is A Vote For Trump In The General Election cantbeserious Dec 2015 #196

Hillary is status quo, Bernie is trying to change the corrupt dynamic. Dustlawyer Dec 2015 #200

sorry MFM008 Dec 2015 #203

Lame Populist_Prole Dec 2015 #204

I understand how you feel. I like your Che avatar, but this is just my humble opinion -- akbacchus_BC Dec 2015 #206

TRUMP MAY NOT BE THEIR NOMINEE!!! nt Herman4747 Dec 2015 #210

I put that to bed a long time ago. nt antigop Dec 2015 #216

You must have struck a nerve, Dustlawyer. nt antigop Dec 2015 #217

By pretending that the concerns of a large number of democrats do not matter Gothmog Dec 2015 #220

add +1 to the "Bernie is unelectable" meme counter. nt antigop Dec 2015 #222

Beware: Someone Is Trying to Convince You That Bernie Can't Win antigop Dec 2015 #223