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2016 Postmortem

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Blue Yorker

(436 posts)
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 03:51 PM Sep 2012

There's a tracking poll that few have paid attention to [View all]

I don't want to praise it or criticize it since I had never heard of it until recently.

It's the Rand american life panel. This poll uses the same exact people in their sample (a panel). I find that strange since it sounds like it isn't a random sample and therefore it sounds like BS, but Nate Silver (who spent years studying this) has said Rand "is therefore subject to less statistical noise than other surveys." http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/15/sept-15-waiting-on-wisconsin/#more-34585

Here's the link to the tracking poll, updated every day. https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/index.php?page=election

Obama has a 3% lead there as we speak.

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