sanders is not trying to win a majority of the party but wants to get to the convention with 30% of the delegates. That is less likely now
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/5/15/1857658/-If-Bernie-loses-support-among-youth-what-s-left
Bernie Sanders’ strategy for victory in 2020 isn’t about winning the majority of delegates to the Democratic Party convention. “Sanders aides believe he’ll easily win enough delegates to put him into contention at the convention,” reported The Atlantic. “They say they don’t need him to get more than 30 percent to make that happen.” Once they’re at the convention with his 30 percent, they presumably figure they can threaten and bully the party to nominate him. This way, he doesn’t have to work to expand support beyond his core group of supporters.
However, what happens if he can’t hold that core? This isn’t 2016, with a binary choice between Bernie and a demonized establishment Democrat. This is a rich field, with credible candidates representing just about every key party constituency. There are candidates just as liberal as Bernie, yet not as polarizing. So would Bernie’s core supporters stick with him as they became better aware of this amazing field? Apparently not, according to the latest Morning Consult primary poll.
“Sanders on the decline with 18-29 year-olds,” reads the polling memo. ”Throughout March, Bernie Sanders had 45% of the first choice vote share among America’s youngest voters. That support has steadily declined and currently sits at 33%.”...
With Bernie Sanders at 19 points in this poll, he’s a far cry from the 30 percent or so he wants for his “force himself upon a brokered convention” scenario (understanding that the popular vote and delegate allocation aren’t a one-to-one calculation, but close enough). It’s been clear he’s been maxed out for a while—both his and his supporters’ ornery approach to politics don’t lend themselves to big-tent embrace of a broader coalition. Quite the opposite, in fact.
He can’t grow, and if he can’t hold his most important supporters? His path to the nomination, already near-zero, becomes effectively zero.
Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
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