Democratic Primaries

Celerity

(54,684 posts)

68. keep on believing that

Sun Jun 30, 2019, 12:29 AM

Jun 2019

Morning Consult (Biden supporters favourite poll or so it seemed):

Biden's Support Slipped 10 Points After Debates, Poll Shows

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287179900

where is your link anyway?

big claims need a link

or are you using that Stan Greenberg test group 'live-polling' tosh?

The one that had Buttigieg dropping 10 points amongst Africans Americans post debate

when no real polls even ever had him above 5, 6% in his best states and in SC all have him at zero or 1% with A-A's (those unfortunately are true for Pete)

pro-tip: there is no such thing as a negative 4%, negative 6%, negative 9% poll number, roflmaoo

also there is this

crazy crash on the markets

Biden had been over 30% or so for 5 weeks

before the debates Harris around 10%

debate hits and BOOM

http://markets.predictwise.com/markets/

PredictWise Markets: June 29 - 19

Kamala Harris 24 %
Elizabeth Warren 18 %
Joe Biden 13 %
Pete Buttigieg 11 %
Bernie Sanders 5 %
Tulsi Gabbard 4 %
Andrew Yang 3 %
Cory Booker 2 %
Julian Castro 1 %
Beto O'Rourke 1 %

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Highlight:

Serious ? -- Would Harris draw more/less independents and Repub never-Trumpers in General Election? [View all] Grasswire2 Jun 2019 OP

She might put Georgia in play. bluewater Jun 2019 #1

GA is in play for most of our top tier candidates. It could be the closest state of them all in 2020 LonePirate Jun 2019 #4

I don't know when it will happen but it will someday. Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #79

I'm in GA and we still don't believe she lost. Voter Suppression by Kemp tulipsandroses Jun 2019 #17

The Mayor of Atlanta, Keisha Lance Bottoms, just endorsed Biden AFTER the debates. democratisphere Jun 2019 #29

Abrams won for sure. So did Gillum and Beto. Nelson too robbedvoter Jun 2019 #36

Unlikely in my opinion. Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #51

I believe that either her, Biden and Warren would win Florida. Blue_true Jun 2019 #56

I don't think she will win Florida..andt I think our only path this year is through the rustbelt.We Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #80

President Obama won Florida twice. Blue_true Jun 2019 #95

reparations paints the south red. rampartc Jun 2019 #84

I'm looking to whoever is tough as nails to take on Trump, watoos Jun 2019 #2

We should not depend on the "Never" group. They will vote Republican in November 2020. LonePirate Jun 2019 #3

Indeed. Plus their take on electability sent them to robbedvoter Jun 2019 #37

A political realignment is coming, and I want whoever can engineer that. marylandblue Jun 2019 #5

Yes, next year will be 40 years since 1980. LuvNewcastle Jun 2019 #21

Really? Moderates took the house in 18 and have you looked at the Senate...there was a political Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #52

Any such political realignment does of course include moderates. marylandblue Jun 2019 #58

Is Katie Porter a moderate? rufus dog Jun 2019 #59

She has joined the progressive caucus and is considered to be endangered...this is orange country. Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #63

Agree with every word! nt UniteFightBack Jun 2019 #72

Nancy is trying to protect our newly one house majority...hope to God she succeeds. Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #78

Katie is one to watch, she will be President one day. katmondoo Jun 2019 #76

No she won't unless we roll up our sleeves and change hearts and mindes in moderate Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #77

Less than Biden, you mean? Definitely less. She has much less chance of winning highplainsdem Jun 2019 #6

I also worry that running a divisive candidate Mme. Defarge Jun 2019 #14

Biden brought up the issue and stands by it. Is it any of the other candidates job to defend him on CentralMass Jun 2019 #16

She's not assuming assuming ANY Democrat can beat Trump marylandblue Jun 2019 #23

I completely disagree. I believe he's among the weakest potential nominees. hedda_foil Jun 2019 #24

The polling definitely doesn't support your assertion that he's among the weakest possible nominees. highplainsdem Jun 2019 #25

Warren hopped on board the Medicare for All-eliminate private insurance train ucrdem Jun 2019 #27

+1000 Thekaspervote Jun 2019 #64

Out of anything ...that right there ended Warren in a general election. nt UniteFightBack Jun 2019 #73

Your faith in early polling is touching but wrong. hedda_foil Jun 2019 #32

the most dangerous thing for us it to rely on early polling AlexSFCA Jun 2019 #38

That's why I'm supporting him. Turin_C3PO Jun 2019 #45

+1000 gldstwmn Jun 2019 #69

The electorate will chose a nominee and hopefully we all get behind that nominee. CentralMass Jun 2019 #7

Look, Hillary got 3 million more votes than the asshole, and that's before the nation knew... TreasonousBastard Jun 2019 #8

And the same thing could happen this year...we have to win in the electoral college. Has anyone Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #53

No madville Jun 2019 #9

Or some other left issue like reparations, Medicare for all, etc. that the 80% ers don't like. empedocles Jun 2019 #15

Something like 90% of people are for universal background checks. Turin_C3PO Jun 2019 #46

It would hurt her in the rustbelt must win states. Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #54

The actual intent of the executive orders doesn't really matter madville Jun 2019 #94

My suspicion on significant crossover votes is vote for the less problematic/unlikeable alternative. empedocles Jun 2019 #10

If the Dems select a candidate who is perceived as Mme. Defarge Jun 2019 #11

Every Democratic candidate will be seen as "divisive" dawg day Jun 2019 #18

Can't get more divisive than Trump. Turin_C3PO Jun 2019 #48

Warren has also come out in favor of federal support for busing. ucrdem Jun 2019 #12

Her current poll numbers don't in any way suggest she could win any swing voters. highplainsdem Jun 2019 #13

And btw, if you wonder how NeverTrumpers view her, I suggest you check out Tom Nichols' highplainsdem Jun 2019 #19

She would energize the youth vote, POC Fiendish Thingy Jun 2019 #20

Possibly but would that outweigh the swing voters hammered by targeted GOP ads? ucrdem Jun 2019 #22

It always has. hedda_foil Jun 2019 #28

Like in 1968? ucrdem Jun 2019 #35

I'm referring to your never Trumpers and swing voters. Put your faith in them and ... hedda_foil Jun 2019 #39

I would love to see a woman prez! even Hillary has said America will not elect a fe prez Thekaspervote Jun 2019 #65

Nothing in the polling suggests Harris would be particularly good at energizing the youth vote or highplainsdem Jun 2019 #26

It's too early. These thing change and build during the actual campaign, which has just begun. hedda_foil Jun 2019 #30

No, but Elizabeth Warren can. Claritie Pixie Jun 2019 #31

Yes. She would. Now is the time to forcefully embrace a feminist platform. Politicub Jun 2019 #33

all this 'only Biden can win' posturing by some ignores one huge fact Celerity Jun 2019 #34

One thing that has emerged is that Biden's 'gaffes' have not hurt him with POC...which means he Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #41

that really remains to be seen, as the first post-debate poll just came out and shows him Celerity Jun 2019 #44

Very early and with the contrived nature of the attack complete with t-shirts...we shall se when Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #55

keep rolling with that 'contrived attack' line, EVERYTHING is contrived, it is called debate prep Celerity Jun 2019 #57

Biden's gaffs with the AA voters increased by polling with AA voters by 18% following the debate Thekaspervote Jun 2019 #66

keep on believing that Celerity Jun 2019 #68

Not so sure about the methodology, seems like relying on social media is open to manipulation. 58Sunliner Jun 2019 #86

the main news was the very large drop in the Morning Consult poll. Celerity Jun 2019 #91

She won't win in rustbelt states and neither will Warren...they just won't...we will lose the Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #40

oh, scare tactics now, woot woot Celerity Jun 2019 #47

Seriously, I have said this for months...and I notice no one ever says ...how we win without the Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #49

I just do not see circa 2019-20 Biden as up to the task atm, based off multiple months of watching Celerity Jun 2019 #87

I find debates meaningless..and the attacks on Biden were unfair ...well she opened the door and Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #89

I did not use RW talking points at all, that is simply false Celerity Jun 2019 #90

How about it's a dose of REALITY. nt UniteFightBack Jun 2019 #74

you do not define my reality, sorry Celerity Jun 2019 #88

Just be careful to not prick that bubble your 'reality' resides in. nt UniteFightBack Jun 2019 #92

Harris might pull in the Obama coalition. Eyeball_Kid Jun 2019 #62

In a way we are just amusing ourselves right now treestar Jun 2019 #93

And if she carries Florida the Rust Belt doesn't mean a damned thing (nt) Recursion Jun 2019 #71

Pretty big risk that...Florida is trending red. And we lost a sitting Senator in Florida in 18. Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #81

It's hard to know. Turin_C3PO Jun 2019 #42

No, Warren is from the East Coast and Harris from the West Coast...they won't win. Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #50

IMO this election will be about exciting voters tishaLA Jun 2019 #43

IMO, Harris is capable of becoming wildly popular. Eyeball_Kid Jun 2019 #60

Californians aren't sold Thekaspervote Jun 2019 #67

This is not a new article but given the recent stories in Wapo, Intercept and the AP ths needs to be Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #85

Funny how things can change in 24 hours... Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #82

I trust she will be able to if she is our nominee. IluvPitties Jun 2019 #61

If she brings AA voting back to 2008 or even just 2012 levels, we win (nt) Recursion Jun 2019 #70

Obama showed that African Americans can attract Independents Curky Jun 2019 #75

Obama was a rock star....very gifted. Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #83