Looking back at 5 months of RCP primary poll averages. Very little change. [View all]

[highplainsdem]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html


I used their graph to look at 2/28/2019 through 7/29/2019.


Biden: 30.5% on February 28. 31.3% today.

Harris: 11.5% then. 11% today.

Sanders and Warren combined have been roughly 30% total support for the last 5 months. The lowest points for their combined totals were when Biden's polling was highest. Around that time the combined support for Sanders and Warren was sometimes under 25%. It's at 29.1% today.

The change there has been Sanders going from getting 2/3 or more of that slice of the electorate to him getting approximately half. On February 28 their combined support was 27.5%, but that was Sanders 20.5% and Warren 7%. Today their combined support is 29.1%, but that's Warren 14.8% and Sanders 14.3%

I remember Nate Silver mentioning a while back that there really hadn't been that much change in the top candidates overall since March. He's right about that, except for the way the Sanders/Warren total is being divided between them.