"Above all, the mistaken belief that Democrats won in 2018 by gaining Republican support..."

[Garrett78]

8. You're missing the point.

The vast majority of "independents" are just as set in their ways as those who identify with a party. In fact, studies have shown that today's "independents" are more partisan than the average party-affiliated voter was a few decades ago. They simply like calling themselves "independent" for any number of reasons. It isn't because they're on the fence and ripe for the picking.

Many people have suggested that the key to winning in 2020 is winning over Trump voters.

This is a quote from the person being interviewed:

The explanation, of course, is that it was this giant turnout of core constituencies, that either are Democrats or favor Democrats — they’re independents who favor Democrats — and they have a huge turnout explosion. So it's not the same pool of voters changing their minds and voting Democrat after voting Republican because of the issue of health care. It's a whole different pool of voters.

They might have many reasons that they cite, and probably this is not the reason they would cite. But what made them enraged and show up is Trump Inc., the negative partisanship. I don't know why Nancy Pelosi, the DCCC or many of these moderate members are convinced that moderate Republicans crossed over and voted for them. I have the data for some of these districts and the data tells a very different, very clear story: If Republicans voted in huge numbers, they voted for Republicans.