We are about to see a major shift in the primary. [View all]

[TidalWave46]

Sanders is done and Biden is about to fall.

Sanders: Sanders was already on a downward trajectory. His heart attack is going to end any possibility of a comeback. He will continue to raise very large sums of money but he is going to be relegated to the bottom tier of candidates. This will stop any possibility for him to gain any type of meaningful delegates. He will end up with almost none. This is really what he was in for anyway. Going into the convention with some clout. By the time the convention rolls around I am willing to bet that the only clout he will have will be his endorsement, and that will be pretty insignificant at that point.

I do think Sanders is going to stay in until the end. No career politician drops out when they are pulling in huge sums of money. Money is now his power.

Biden: Biden is about to go down to what we have been referring to as second tier candidates. Interestingly enough, considering the front-runner status he has held, that will really just bring more candidates up to the first tier.

This is about optics. Sanders heart attack is going to hurt Biden. It will make people second guess him as a choice. Image is everything. The tactic Trump is using will also have a great impact on Biden. It doesn't matter if people know it is fake or not. People don't want to go into the general with a candidate surrounded by controversy and scandal, and Biden is surrounded by both. His name is in the papers every single day and is attached to Trump. He is being cleared left and right but the coverage is still there. At the present time, I think people are completely done with "but her emails." That is too recent history.

Biden's fundraising haul wasn't all that good. It paints a picture at a time when he is getting hit from every angle.

We now have candidate after candidate, elected official after elected official, coming out to support Biden against Trump. Many are almost doing so more powerfully than Biden himself. Again, back to optics. People are even clamoring for others to come out and fight for Biden. While that should be expected, it doesn't paint a pretty picture. It portrays him as a seventy something year old man who needs help in a fight. People should stop that narrative. Specially when demanding other candidates jump in more forcefully. It has the image of Biden being weak and it is going to hurt him.

"He can beat Trump is not a good slogan." It is based off of so little and all people have to do is put a ding in that one piece of armor. Either by creating doubt or by others polling close to him in head to head match-ups with Trump. This narrative has been built up so much that many people don't think of Biden as someone presenting policy. More that he is simply someone taking on Trump.

Biden's only saving grace will be in an absolute drag out fight for delegates. How many can he get? He is polling great in some states. I think over the next two weeks we are going to see a pretty big dip in his polling. It's still going to leave him in the delegate hunt for those states. I don't think Biden is going to crater like Sanders who will not realize many delegates by the end of the process.



While I have great respect and admiration for many politicians, I don't do the fan club thing. Biden is one of my favorites but I can fully see what is happening and understand the impact of optics in politics. I think Biden has had a great career and if he goes down it won't bother me. He is a great guy and will be just fine in life. I would probably feel differently if we didn't have such a solid field.

My list of ones to watch:

Warren
Harris
Buttigieg
Klobuchar


While Warren will become the clear front runner over the next two weeks, look for the field to become closer as Biden and Sanders supporters shift to other candidates. Warren will be a great front runner but there seems to be a bit of nervousness with many who are eyeing her.

That's what I think.