New ABC/WaPo poll finds Biden's supporters much more committed to him than Warren's are to her [View all]

[highplainsdem]

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1208a32020Democrats.pdf

MOVE? –Current standings are not predictive; there’s plenty of room for movement. Indeed about half of leaned Democrats, 53 percent, either say they’d consider another candidate (47 percent) or have no current preference (6 percent).

Warren’s supporters are not highly committed; 65 percent say they’d consider someone else. That compares with 43 percent among Biden’s supporters and 50 percent among supporters of all other candidates combined. (The sample size of Sanders supporters is too small to dice.)

Who might their second choices be? Current Biden supporters divide chiefly between Sanders (31 percent) and Warren (26 percent) as their fallback preference, with 8 percent apiece for Harris and Amy Klobuchar and 7 percent for Buttigieg. Warren voters go more for Sanders (36 percent) than Biden (17 percent) as their second choice, with 11 percent each for Harris and Buttigieg and 6 percent for Julián Castro.

Among all leaned Democrats who support someone other than Biden or Warren, second choice preferences divide between Biden, 24 percent and Warren, 23 percent, with all others in the single digits.

So Biden's supporters are most certain of their preference. And Biden is as likely as Warren to be the second choice of voters who currently prefer one of the other candidates.

This is similar to what Morning Consult has been finding in its polling of voters' 2nd, 3rd and 4th choices. Warren doesn't have a significant 2nd-choice advantage over Biden.

I know there have been some polls indicating Warren is much more popular than Biden as a second choice. But this is a new A+ rated poll.

And I expect to see Warren's numbers fall as more people react to her proposals for MFA.