Democratic Primaries

Jarqui

(10,903 posts)

8. The claim about those numbers is false

Thu Nov 7, 2019, 10:11 PM

Nov 2019

Again, the first numbers were cherry picked from polls before Biden announced and was a candidate
Look at the graph in that link of what happened after he announced.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
And that is not one outlier poll - it is all of them.

Biden may yet prevail. But he is not nearly in as good a position as he was.
His poor 3rd qty fundraising tells us that. And so does the narrowing of these polls.
He's slipped to 4th in Iowa. (In April Biden led Warren 25 to 7)
He's second to Warren +4 in NH. (In April, Biden led Warren by 13)
He's losing to Warren in California. (In April Biden led Warren 26 to 7)
A month ago, Warren had caught him over all.
This race has significantly tightened up.

In January 2008, Hillary had a 21+ point lead.
Nearly three times the lead Biden has now.
How did that turn out?

This primary is far from over.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Paul Begala on CNN just made an interesting point about Biden "collapsing": [View all] George II Nov 2019 OP

I even heard that theory from a taxi driver the other day. Grasswire2 Nov 2019 #1

boom evertonfc Nov 2019 #2

Not a peep outta Trump machine on Sanders or Warren. Keeping its powder remarkably dry. emmaverybo Nov 2019 #36

We must win the battleground states. kstewart33 Nov 2019 #52

I heard the same arguments in 2008. Obama was the dangerous choice then. Gore1FL Nov 2019 #61

Message auto-removed Name removed Nov 2019 #58

The end of Biden has been pushed by some since he entered the race, without merit I might add still_one Nov 2019 #3

Not to correct you, but not "insecurity" but abject "FEAR"! George II Nov 2019 #4

As usual, Begala is not reliable Jarqui Nov 2019 #5

Not true...Biden is not fading ...wait for the Warren numbers and actual voting...Biden will be Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #7

The claim about those numbers is false Jarqui Nov 2019 #8

She caught him by point 2 of a percent in an aggregate that ignored one important poll's results emmaverybo Nov 2019 #13

Hillary was in a much stronger position than Joe on Jan 2, 2008 +21.6 Jarqui Nov 2019 #15

Hillary is not running. She was stronger than Warren or Sanders too. And far more qualified, as emmaverybo Nov 2019 #16

In early 2008, Hillary had significantly more support from blacks than Obama Jarqui Nov 2019 #20

Yes, she is endorsed by "black Womxn for," a very progressive activist group of black trans, emmaverybo Nov 2019 #21

You are being too dismissive of Warren Jarqui Nov 2019 #24

I think you misunderestimate Joe! Bernie would put rollers on his coffin and run. I say that emmaverybo Nov 2019 #25

I truly like and support all of them Jarqui Nov 2019 #46

Excellent point... even Joe knows it based on recent campaign strategy decisions. InAbLuEsTaTe Nov 2019 #28

I supported Bernie in 2016 - I'll like him forever Jarqui Nov 2019 #47

I agree with you on everything, except no way Bernie or Elizabeth would even offer Joe the VP slot. InAbLuEsTaTe Nov 2019 #48

If Joe were younger, he'd do it for the country Jarqui Nov 2019 #49

I agree with that first statement, neither BS nor Warren will be in a position to offer him the VP. George II Nov 2019 #51

The m$media and anti-Bidens have a narrative Cha Nov 2019 #6

The ultra left wing wants Biden to collapse PhoenixDem Nov 2019 #9

They realize but think their superior political philosophy, and superior plans based on it, should emmaverybo Nov 2019 #11

Great post PhoenixDem Nov 2019 #12

Gee gosh, Thanks. emmaverybo Nov 2019 #14

If anyone is going to collapse BootinUp Nov 2019 #10

Well, she has about thirty or so more extensive and costly plans she will eventually probably have emmaverybo Nov 2019 #17

There's something I want to say BootinUp Nov 2019 #19

I get it though I hadn't thought about policy proposals in that light. Often think they all evolve emmaverybo Nov 2019 #22

Biden needs around 40% of the vote to win a majority of delegates crazytown Nov 2019 #18

Well then you are backing the winner! What you worry? emmaverybo Nov 2019 #23

The writing's on the wall... why Hillary keeps hinting she's jumping in the race. InAbLuEsTaTe Nov 2019 #29

If Hillary goes in, Bernie might end up with the most delegates crazytown Nov 2019 #30

LOL, great minds think alike!! That's what I expect too if Hillary does run...and I hope she does!! InAbLuEsTaTe Nov 2019 #32

Joe Biden will still be standing tall for the Presidential nomination democratisphere Nov 2019 #26

agree. The MSM is trying to whip up nonsense to sensationalize. onetexan Nov 2019 #27

Warren & Sanders are not falling by the wayside. crazytown Nov 2019 #31

THIS!!! InAbLuEsTaTe Nov 2019 #33

He's run for president 3 times and hasn't won a single primary. Tiggeroshii Nov 2019 #34

Well, seems like to YOU. How many times did Reagan run? Bernie is not as widely respected and emmaverybo Nov 2019 #35

Biden still has yet to prove he can win a primary, let alone the presidency. Tiggeroshii Nov 2019 #37

Bernie has won 23 presidential primaries? I didn't know that. emmaverybo Nov 2019 #38

. Tiggeroshii Nov 2019 #39

Oh, I do see. State primaries. Yes. Should count for something. emmaverybo Nov 2019 #44

So far, Biden isn't even set to win IA (tied for 3rd) or NH (tied for 2nd) based on current polling. Tiggeroshii Nov 2019 #59

And so you hope. Personally, I don't know how much SC voters will be guided by IA or NH results. emmaverybo Nov 2019 #60

I much prefer that Biden has 8 years of excellent Cha Nov 2019 #42

Yes, there is that little item on his resume, not the winner of 23 primaries, but a heartbeat emmaverybo Nov 2019 #43

Well put! I like what you you Cha Nov 2019 #45

Biden has much better experience and more qualifications Cha Nov 2019 #41

So?.. since then as you may have heard he's Cha Nov 2019 #40

He's never lost a single primary, either. George II Nov 2019 #50

Not logically relevant treestar Nov 2019 #57

the narrative by the power elitist must take Biden out, that includes 95% of the media beachbumbob Nov 2019 #53

From Nate Silver Gothmog Nov 2019 #54

Yep..Biden is solid.. and growing. Peacetrain Nov 2019 #55

Yes. Pushing this "collapse" theme is an agenda identifier for most. Hortensis Nov 2019 #56

Joe will keep on keeping on. nt oasis Nov 2019 #62