Democratic Primaries

Demsrule86

(71,542 posts)

18. I believe she is slipping and if Biden is clearly the front runner that will have an effect. Also,

Fri Nov 15, 2019, 02:21 PM

Nov 2019

the notion that all Californians are far left is false. Biden has lead in some California polls and most likely he will win or they will split delegates which won't help Warren...race may even be over before California for all intents and purposes.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Silver: There's a quite plausible scenario where 1st 3 states "a mess," then Biden takes a big lead [View all] highplainsdem Nov 2019 OP

It's very possible that for the first three states there's close to a 3-way tie.... George II Nov 2019 #1

Biden needs a close 3rd place in IA and NH to win nomination ritapria Nov 2019 #4

There are approximately 4,000 delegates. Iowa has 41, New Hampshire 24.... George II Nov 2019 #7

It is all about the media narrative ritapria Nov 2019 #8

Or more people, period. Although it's perceived that IA and NH are important (white as they are).... George II Nov 2019 #10

Everyone is right. boomer_wv Nov 2019 #15

Wonderful post...very sensible...and I completely agree. Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #20

Excellent analysis. Enlightening. emmaverybo Nov 2019 #31

very good. right on point stopdiggin Nov 2019 #39

And consider Bill Clinton never won either. Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #21

Neither did George McGovern in 1972.... George II Nov 2019 #26

Wait...wait...forget about "the nomination." The Valley Below Nov 2019 #24

Excellent point! George II Nov 2019 #28

Couldn't have made it without your excellent post! The Valley Below Nov 2019 #30

Oh, hell. If voters' reactions were determined by the media narrative, Biden would never have run, highplainsdem Nov 2019 #41

Bill Clinton won neither state and went on to the nomination and the presidency. Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #22

Is this your first primary? BannonsLiver Nov 2019 #23

All three leading candidates will probably come out with 20 delegates, give or take a few. George II Nov 2019 #36

Biden will do well in South Carolina and the Southern primaries Gothmog Nov 2019 #32

Has Biden even campaigned in North Carolina? Cha Nov 2019 #2

Yes, he's campaigned there, and he was way ahead in 3rd quarter fundraising there: highplainsdem Nov 2019 #5

Thanks, hpd! Yay! Cha Nov 2019 #6

I don't think he or many candidates have been to NORTH Carolina but they've all been to SOUTH Car. George II Nov 2019 #11

Here is some interesting polling Gothmog Nov 2019 #33

I think Biden wil take Nevada and South Carolina and tie in Iowa or be close enough...he may win New Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #3

That sounds plausible to me, too. highplainsdem Nov 2019 #9

I think so... Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #16

This!! The article makes really valid points Thekaspervote Nov 2019 #12

It does make valid points...good article. Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #17

Warren has a buffer in California Xandric77 Nov 2019 #13

Some polls have shown Biden ahead in CA. And TX and FL together have more delegates than CA, highplainsdem Nov 2019 #14

I believe she is slipping and if Biden is clearly the front runner that will have an effect. Also, Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #18

That's more or less what happened in 1992 BannonsLiver Nov 2019 #19

Hard to say. Once people engage their votes can shift rapidly and most people aren't yet. nt Quixote1818 Nov 2019 #25

We've been hearing that since the spring. We're less than 3 months from the Iowa caucus. bearsfootball516 Nov 2019 #27

Lless than 3 months and the next debate has 10 candidates crazytown Nov 2019 #29

Yeah....wish that could be whittled down a little more. bearsfootball516 Nov 2019 #34

Too many! I would like to see Biden, Warren, Sanders and Buttigeige debate. Honestly, I wish Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #40

Biden is the ONLY candidate running who is in a strong position to win the first four contests Gothmog Nov 2019 #35

Highest quality CA poll... boomer_wv Nov 2019 #37

Joe Biden is the most electable candidate that the Democratic Party has available Gothmog Nov 2019 #38

2020 is not going to be your father's primary year. MineralMan Nov 2019 #42