Democratic Primaries

emmaverybo

(8,148 posts)

31. Excellent analysis. Enlightening.

Reply to boomer_wv (Reply #15)

Fri Nov 15, 2019, 01:39 PM

Nov 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Silver: There's a quite plausible scenario where 1st 3 states "a mess," then Biden takes a big lead [View all] highplainsdem Nov 2019 OP

It's very possible that for the first three states there's close to a 3-way tie.... George II Nov 2019 #1

Biden needs a close 3rd place in IA and NH to win nomination ritapria Nov 2019 #4

There are approximately 4,000 delegates. Iowa has 41, New Hampshire 24.... George II Nov 2019 #7

It is all about the media narrative ritapria Nov 2019 #8

Or more people, period. Although it's perceived that IA and NH are important (white as they are).... George II Nov 2019 #10

Everyone is right. boomer_wv Nov 2019 #15

Wonderful post...very sensible...and I completely agree. Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #20

Excellent analysis. Enlightening. emmaverybo Nov 2019 #31

very good. right on point stopdiggin Nov 2019 #39

And consider Bill Clinton never won either. Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #21

Neither did George McGovern in 1972.... George II Nov 2019 #26

Wait...wait...forget about "the nomination." The Valley Below Nov 2019 #24

Excellent point! George II Nov 2019 #28

Couldn't have made it without your excellent post! The Valley Below Nov 2019 #30

Oh, hell. If voters' reactions were determined by the media narrative, Biden would never have run, highplainsdem Nov 2019 #41

Bill Clinton won neither state and went on to the nomination and the presidency. Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #22

Is this your first primary? BannonsLiver Nov 2019 #23

All three leading candidates will probably come out with 20 delegates, give or take a few. George II Nov 2019 #36

Biden will do well in South Carolina and the Southern primaries Gothmog Nov 2019 #32

Has Biden even campaigned in North Carolina? Cha Nov 2019 #2

Yes, he's campaigned there, and he was way ahead in 3rd quarter fundraising there: highplainsdem Nov 2019 #5

Thanks, hpd! Yay! Cha Nov 2019 #6

I don't think he or many candidates have been to NORTH Carolina but they've all been to SOUTH Car. George II Nov 2019 #11

Here is some interesting polling Gothmog Nov 2019 #33

I think Biden wil take Nevada and South Carolina and tie in Iowa or be close enough...he may win New Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #3

That sounds plausible to me, too. highplainsdem Nov 2019 #9

I think so... Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #16

This!! The article makes really valid points Thekaspervote Nov 2019 #12

It does make valid points...good article. Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #17

Warren has a buffer in California Xandric77 Nov 2019 #13

Some polls have shown Biden ahead in CA. And TX and FL together have more delegates than CA, highplainsdem Nov 2019 #14

I believe she is slipping and if Biden is clearly the front runner that will have an effect. Also, Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #18

That's more or less what happened in 1992 BannonsLiver Nov 2019 #19

Hard to say. Once people engage their votes can shift rapidly and most people aren't yet. nt Quixote1818 Nov 2019 #25

We've been hearing that since the spring. We're less than 3 months from the Iowa caucus. bearsfootball516 Nov 2019 #27

Lless than 3 months and the next debate has 10 candidates crazytown Nov 2019 #29

Yeah....wish that could be whittled down a little more. bearsfootball516 Nov 2019 #34

Too many! I would like to see Biden, Warren, Sanders and Buttigeige debate. Honestly, I wish Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #40

Biden is the ONLY candidate running who is in a strong position to win the first four contests Gothmog Nov 2019 #35

Highest quality CA poll... boomer_wv Nov 2019 #37

Joe Biden is the most electable candidate that the Democratic Party has available Gothmog Nov 2019 #38

2020 is not going to be your father's primary year. MineralMan Nov 2019 #42