Democratic Primaries

loveboy

(44 posts)

66. Betting markets

Sat Jan 25, 2020, 04:47 PM

Jan 2020

It’s a market where people buy / sell contracts on which candidates are likely to win or lose a political event. You buy in the anticipation that the price for your candidate will rise as they gain popularity. The biggest market is PredictIt and Biden has always been the top tick for Iowa and the nomination for a LONG time.

That flipped today and Bernie surged to to the top around mid-day.

We might not like it, but the markets are right most of the time because people are betting with their own money (there is a lot of academic research around why the markets are the best predictor).

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Highlight:

NYT: Sanders surges to lead in Iowa (+8 over Biden, 7 over Buttigieg) [View all] Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 OP

Same poll shows sanders losing to trump in the GE by 6 pts!! Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #1

In Iowa, not nationally. Trump won Iowa by 10 points last time. DanTex Jan 2020 #2

Oh great!! So your guy wins IA, but loses the GE? Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #4

That GE poll is just for the state of Iowa, not nationally. DanTex Jan 2020 #6

Message auto-removed Name removed Jan 2020 #73

This message was self-deleted by its author Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #3

Does it show Biden beating Trump? zentrum Jan 2020 #5

I cannot see the link... here's the most telling poll of all Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #7

If you can't see the link melman Jan 2020 #13

The above post is not part of the NYT poll. Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #18

Early GE polls mean squat at this point. Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #14

What means something is that Biden has a much wider appeal across demographic groups emmaverybo Jan 2020 #47

+1000, it's like people don't want to win. I can't imagine caring about any issue more than WINNING UniteFightBack Jan 2020 #48

Hogwash Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #51

Agreed. zentrum Jan 2020 #79

No, but he's much closer to beating Trump than Sanders is. highplainsdem Jan 2020 #9

Early polls mean nothing right now. Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #15

If early polls they mean nothing then why post them??!! Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #19

Because he posted this thread about a primary poll and you started squawking about a GE poll. Hassin Bin Sober Jan 2020 #31

It doesn't change the numbers!! The numbers are not there for sanders Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #50

The most qualified candidate ever lost Iowa by ten points. Hassin Bin Sober Jan 2020 #56

Which proves my point as well is others!! This is about IA!! Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #62

No, but he's much closer to beating Trump than Sanders is. highplainsdem Jan 2020 #10

No but it does show this BeyondGeography Jan 2020 #11

We've lost aplenty as moderates over the last couple decades. I say give it a shot. Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #17

I say no...we don't give it a shot and keep the most dangerous president ever in power...Sander Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #23

I think it will be a tough race either way nt BeyondGeography Jan 2020 #29

yeah right! whistler162 Jan 2020 #8

RCP average now has Biden going into IA at +.7 Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #12

Toast, eh? Vogon_Glory Jan 2020 #16

Burnt toast Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #20

Bill Clinton lost both Iowa and New Hampshire...and won the election...Sanders has nowhere to go Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #24

Polling suggests AAs and POC support is more than the national support Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #27

No...Sanders never had much AA support and he will have less after Rogan...This is why he is Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #37

Oh.. the demise of Joe's campaign rides again!! Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #22

More wishful thinking. The money guys are moving to Biden which means...they think he will be the Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #25

Hand stands!! Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #26

How certain of Joe's win are you, really? Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #28

10... Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #35

Right there with ya!! Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #52

IA means little with the upcoming onslaught that sanders will face Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #21

I mean. This is no fun and pointless without a wager, frankly. Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #30

that .7 lead includes a ridiculous +10 for Biden poll by a guy who moonlights to "stop socialism" Hassin Bin Sober Jan 2020 #45

Do you know the 538 rating on it? Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #80

Non existent I think. Hassin Bin Sober Jan 2020 #81

Oh ok that puts Sanders up .5 on 538 Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #82

Interesting that all of Bernie's gain, basically, came from Warren. DanTex Jan 2020 #32

You know what I think that is a really shitty thing to say...Sander's campaign put out GOTV Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #38

Yes, it was shitty of Warren to accuse Sanders of saying something he would obviously never say. DanTex Jan 2020 #41

You got that exactly backwards Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #55

I'm really surprised to see this in the face of all the personal attacks this week. Aaron Pereira Jan 2020 #33

The polls are not from this week...give them time... Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #36

And the more likely it becomes that Bernie has a real shot at actually winning the totodeinhere Jan 2020 #43

Exactly. Personal attacks and gratuitous hostility can't easily be smoothed over in six months. Aaron Pereira Jan 2020 #44

Damn straight... GO BERNIE!! The Boundless Bernie Bashing Backlash continues unabated!! InAbLuEsTaTe Jan 2020 #34

Bernie is kickin butt but I never put much faith in any poll, even those days before an election yaesu Jan 2020 #39

Where is he "kicking butt" please show me!! Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #54

A couple of screenshots which include this poll: George II Jan 2020 #40

Thx for posting So sanders and Biden are going to split the delegates, that's a given Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #58

Trump evertonfc Jan 2020 #42

I've already been hearing attacks on Sanders from the puke dumpers in my life. I mean they UniteFightBack Jan 2020 #49

Yes he will Green Line Jan 2020 #53

+1000 Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #59

This message was self-deleted by its author RandiFan1290 Jan 2020 #63

Hillary will probably work as hard for bernie calguy Jan 2020 #74

Awesome. Though I am still goingot keep working booley Jan 2020 #46

Message auto-removed Name removed Jan 2020 #57

RCP and 538 poll averages for Ia are showing a tie between sanand Biden Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #60

Biden was ahead by about 4 until this one Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #70

Message auto-removed Name removed Jan 2020 #72

That was quick...I'm impressed! George II Jan 2020 #78

Welcome to DU Tiggerbees. lapucelle Jan 2020 #83

Betting markets have Bernie favorite loveboy Jan 2020 #61

Betting markets? ismnotwasm Jan 2020 #64

Betting markets loveboy Jan 2020 #66

Thank you ismnotwasm Jan 2020 #68

Haha, that's a good one. SaschaHM Jan 2020 #71

True loveboy Jan 2020 #76

Thank goodness we don't have to wait much longer to see MineralMan Jan 2020 #65

Yes loveboy Jan 2020 #67

Message auto-removed Name removed Jan 2020 #75

Unlikely loveboy Jan 2020 #77

Agreed! Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #69

I think this explains Mrs. Clinton's recent attack Yeehah Jan 2020 #84