Latest 538 odds and delegate counts, just 2 days before the Iowa caucus: [View all]

[George II]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

Biden holding steady at 1 in 2 odds to win the nomination
Sanders dropped to 1 in 4 (from 1 in 3) to win the nomination

Projected delegate count:

Biden 1750 (up from 1742 yesterday)
Sanders 1250 (down from 1289 yesterday)

Biden +500, up from 453.

1990 wins the nomination on the first ballot - Biden only 240 short!

Early states delegates (compared to yesterday):

Iowa:

Sanders 12.7 (-0.2)
Biden 12.6 (-0.1)
Warren 5.8 (+0.5)
Buttigieg 7.2 (-0.7)

New Hampshire:

Sanders 9.9 (0.0)
Biden 5.7 (0.0)
Warren 3.1 (+0.1)
Buttigieg 4.4 (-0.1)

Nevada:

Sanders 13.5 (-0.1)
Biden 12.9 (-0.2)
Warren 5.0 (-0.1)
Buttigieg 3.1 (+0.3)

South Carolina:

Sanders 15.0 (-0.4)
Biden 28.5 (+.8)
Warren 4.9 (-0.1)
Buttigieg 3.4 (-0.5)