Democratic Primaries

Scurrilous

(38,687 posts)

33. You're welcome. See you tomorrow.

Reply to Thekaspervote (Reply #27)

Wed Feb 5, 2020, 03:05 AM

Feb 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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My take on the Iowa Caucuses... [View all] Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 OP

Agreed. denem Feb 2020 #1

A white, rural, young Iowa caucus wasn't Biden's demographics. Or Warrens. krissey Feb 2020 #2

I agree - but perception is reality in politics. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #3

I think Warren held on with what happened with her numbers the last month. krissey Feb 2020 #5

Yes!! That's why there was such spin by the sanders camp and his supporters before caucus Thekaspervote Feb 2020 #8

Not really. Kentonio Feb 2020 #81

What you say is true. But a loss never looks good or improves comradebillyboy Feb 2020 #92

I for one ibegurpard Feb 2020 #4

This message was self-deleted by its author Scurrilous Feb 2020 #6

Biden needs to get to those states. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #9

That is the issue with Biden. Two huge losses is going to present reminders of other runs of his. krissey Feb 2020 #11

Hillary also was aided by it being a two-person race from start-to-finish... Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #13

Right, and right. I agree about Warren having a surprising show in New Hampshire. krissey Feb 2020 #15

Exactly. A poor showing in NH and NV would remind everyone that Biden's previous attempts... Garrett78 Feb 2020 #24

Right. People still have time to scatter and find another to put their vote behind. krissey Feb 2020 #25

The narrative, ROFL. Scurrilous Feb 2020 #28

You sound like the supporter of every losing campaign ever. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #31

LOL Scurrilous Feb 2020 #38

Nothing to sell. If Biden gets blown out in three straight races, he's done. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #42

This message was self-deleted by its author Scurrilous Feb 2020 #44

Trump finished a close 2nd in IA and won NH easily. Not the example you want to be using. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #45

Biden needs to show in NH. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #47

You can deny history all you want, but that doesn't make it go away. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #34

Despite history, I think for Biden NV and SC radius777 Feb 2020 #55

SC voter changes mind because of NV treestar Feb 2020 #67

This message was self-deleted by its author Scurrilous Feb 2020 #23

Thx Scurrilous! Thekaspervote Feb 2020 #27

You're welcome. See you tomorrow. Scurrilous Feb 2020 #33

If Biden has abandoned NH, he will get routed and won't be the nominee. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #32

Biden's campaign has done little in NH, but I suspect the Iowa result has them rethinking. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #41

Yes. Biden needs a competitive primary. If he doesn't get it, he's gone. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #43

There are 57 contests treestar Feb 2020 #58

It doesn't matter if they're representative... Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #59

That doesn't mean it always has to happen that way treestar Feb 2020 #61

It doesn't. But history never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #63

No joke. No malarkey. THIS. emmaverybo Feb 2020 #36

... Scurrilous Feb 2020 #39

+1 the overhype of a state because it goes first treestar Feb 2020 #57

It is so stupid and insulting. Scurrilous Feb 2020 #74

It's a media creation too treestar Feb 2020 #86

Elvis shot at his TV a lot. Scurrilous Feb 2020 #91

Problem is too many candidates running. Another problem which very few in the MSM still_one Feb 2020 #49

I'm not saying Biden is out. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #62

These are unique times Irish. Not only are there too many candidates, many of those candidates still_one Feb 2020 #72

I agree Biden is in it through Super Tuesday regardless Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #75

I am not optomistic about his showing in NH, especially based on the polls you just cited. still_one Feb 2020 #83

Thx for that great breakdown of the real numbers. Thekaspervote Feb 2020 #17

This message was self-deleted by its author Scurrilous Feb 2020 #26

538's numbers have not updated to include Iowa's results. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #37

Here's some more numbers to ponder Thekaspervote Feb 2020 #7

That post by Zachary Asher is not very logical dualboy24 Feb 2020 #46

You're being too kind. Asher's tweet makes him come off as a moron. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #48

That pretty much sums up my take, as well. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #10

I agree that the fiasco helped Biden. krissey Feb 2020 #14

Buttigieg, Sanders, and Warren will not get the AA support they need. With or without NH, Joe emmaverybo Feb 2020 #12

People in SC will abandon ship if Biden does poorly in NH and NV. Narrative matters. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #16

No... the AA community will not be swayed by 2 small, 90+ white rural states Thekaspervote Feb 2020 #19

B. Clinton is the only candidate to win the nomination after losing both IA and NH. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #21

This message was self-deleted by its author Scurrilous Feb 2020 #35

Your faith-based prophecy seems lacking in evidence and objective data to support it LanternWaste Feb 2020 #68

Biden isn't immune to black support softening... Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #18

He just announced his biggest monthly campaign donations since he entered the race Thekaspervote Feb 2020 #20

Definitely not to Buttigieg or Sanders. Warren might have more success. But not one of them emmaverybo Feb 2020 #29

Biden isn't getting a majority of black support. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #40

I'm off. Enjoy. Scurrilous Feb 2020 #56

Biden doesn't have a majority of black support. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #60

Odd that as you argue numbers, you're the only one failing to provide any to support your premise LanternWaste Feb 2020 #70

Good post. krissey Feb 2020 #93

Yes. That too. Scurrilous Feb 2020 #95

I didn't know why Sanders was a part of that. But, thanks for the explanation. krissey Feb 2020 #96

No, he isn't. But the problem for the others is that they will be in an uphill battle to gain it. emmaverybo Feb 2020 #22

Great breakdown! The AA community is very tight knit, they tend to vote as a block Thekaspervote Feb 2020 #30

Stacey Abrams Too DarthDem Feb 2020 #53

Interesting take...but what about Bloomberg? Pachamama Feb 2020 #50

Bloomberg will only be a factor in my view if we get to the convention with no candidate having still_one Feb 2020 #51

I disagree. Blue_true Feb 2020 #82

The only way Biden will drop out is if Super Tuesday is dismal. I think the same applies to still_one Feb 2020 #84

IA and NH account for around 7-8% of convention delegates. Florida along accounts for like 13-14%. Blue_true Feb 2020 #87

Pretty much agree, and also... Mike Nelson Feb 2020 #52

Sanders will probably win N.H. with Biden second, followed by Mayor Pete third still_one Feb 2020 #54

I agree. But if Biden slips to third in NH, it's hard for me to see him winning the nomination. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #64

Regardless, Biden is in this through Super Tuesday, and I think it is a mistake for people to write still_one Feb 2020 #71

Writing Biden off now is a mistake... Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #77

We read the polls and tea leaves and thought Biden would be 2nd or 3rd Peacetrain Feb 2020 #65

No one thought Biden would be a distant third - let alone a distant fourth. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #66

You are not getting an argument from me on that one.. Peacetrain Feb 2020 #69

I don't understand how Buttigieg did so well. It seems it came out of nowhere. Beringia Feb 2020 #73

Not really. Pete has always done well in Iowa... Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #78

Thanks Beringia Feb 2020 #89

This MUST be the last time we lead off with Iowa and New Hampshire. redstatebluegirl Feb 2020 #76

All those words and you dedicated maybe ten to the biggest wildcard in the race. Blue_true Feb 2020 #79

I dedicated the least amount to the thing I least know about... Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #80

If Biden stumbles, Bloomberg's numbers skyrocket. Blue_true Feb 2020 #85

It depends on the scenario... Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #88

I can easily see that if Buttigieg did well in those states. Also though, krissey Feb 2020 #94

Fascinating race so far. Kentonio Feb 2020 #90