My take on the Iowa Caucuses...

[Scurrilous]

56. I'm off. Enjoy.

Last edited Wed Feb 5, 2020, 02:10 PM - Edit history (7)

This is not a deep dive. Just stuff I picked up real quick. Tons more out there. All basically saying the same. You think Biden is walking away from the base. He just has to muddle through to primary four in S. Carolina where his biggest supporters await. After that, Super Tuesday and the March 10. All in his favor. The base will right things.

Biden 4th last night? Bernie 5th in Missouri & OK, 4th in Minnesota, and 3rd in Mass. & Tenn.

Through March 10 numbers - not going to change because of muddled returns from 170,000 people in Iowa.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287476885#post6

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☔BlackPeopleAreHuman♿@SparrowOnTheEye
·
11hReplying to @Bakari_Sellers

Why ppl think IA or New Hampshire matters in the 2020? There has been a shift. Non whites have barely voted!!!

HailStateForever@PamChas2

Black people are not going to vote for anyone other than Biden in SC at the same rate. They are not focused on two white states, that exclude them. When Biden gets to my state, we will vote for him as well. Buttigieg and Klobuchar won’t gain his support, nor will they last.

BidenFront(Text Join to 30330)@Biden_Front
·
LOL
Yeah that 53 % african american support will just wake up tomorrow and say, damn that almost all white state thinks something else than we do, we better do what they say-said no African American EVER

Henry"No Malarkey"Djoutsa@D_jeneration
Breaking News@JoeBiden

is still my favorite
Still the favorite.
Still the most qualified.
Still backed by the democratic winning coalition.(POC) African Americans
Still the best to take on trump,beat him and restore the soul of the nation.

Pé Resists@4everNeverTrump

The Democratic candidates spent about $63 million in Iowa leading up to the caucuses.

170,000 people caucused.

That's $370 per caucus-goer.


170,000 people? I live in Miami-Dade County. Population -2,744,878 These 170,000 decide nothing for me.


Poll: Biden continues to dominate among black voters - (December)

'Joe Biden continues to hold a wide lead in the Democratic primary among African Americans, according to a new poll that also shows black voters believe the former vice president would do the best job on most of the issues important to them.

In the crowded Democratic field, Biden has 44 percent support — 29 percentage points higher than Sen, Bernie Sanders, who comes in second among African American likely primary voters, according to the survey for the BlackPAC political action committee."

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/13/poll-biden-continues-to-dominate-among-black-voters-084285

Bernie will not pick up black voters. He is a patronizing clown who thinks black voters are stupid and will vote for him because of photo. Photo? Yeah, photo. The most widely seen photo of a misdemeanor arrest ever!

Link to tweet

#berniesoblack

replying to @EaleyGregory
I can’t wait to celebrate him during black history month starting tomorrow. #berniesoblack

Replying to
@imma_mood
Well at least we know it wasn’t racially motivated. This is Bernie chained to a black female activist protesting against segregation.#GoogleBernie #BernieSanders2020 #BernieSoBlack


eattheboomers@walkinintheyard
·Sep 8, 2019
I would love for someone to ask him why he chose to move to the whitest state in the country. I've spent lots of time in Vermont its nice pretty but its about as diverse as the crowd at a Dave Matthews band concert or a Sanders rally in South Carolina


Tynisa the Cynical Gen X Witch Walker@Kalarigamerchic
· Jul 26, 2019
Since #Berniessoblack was our response to his civil rights stunts. Im now starting #BerniesEveryWoman


Bernie is not liked and won't pick up any votes here. Biden is. Almost as much as the rest combined. They won't be swayed by TV news spin. No narrative is going to make them change their mind. So don't go there. Its a dumb place.

Poll: Biden leads handily in African American support (Jan)
'
"Former vice president Joe Biden is maintaining high levels of support among African American voters less than one month before the first contest of the 2020 election season.

According to a Washington Post-Ipsos national poll released Saturday, 48 percent of Democratic-leaning black voters back Biden as their choice for president, citing his time as former President Barack Obama’s vice president among reasons for their support."

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/11/joe-biden-african-american-voters-poll-097524

The polled South.

Alabama - Biden +21%

Florida - Biden 18.7%

Georgia - Biden +16.6%

Mississippi - Biden +26%

Missouri - Biden +25%

N. Carolina - Biden +11.7%

S. Carolina - Biden +17.4%

Tennessee - Biden +15%

Texas - Biden +17.4%

Virginia - Biden +12%

Look at those numbers. Bernie doesn't have margins like that. They're not changing because Iowa. No one in the South cares what they do up there. But that is devastating for Bernie. That will kill him when Biden picks up those states, When do they kick in? Starting with the 4th primary. Oh, shit. What to do? Lets get Biden out before the 4th by goosing the first three. NH is Bernies. Next door. White. 1.1% black. Rural. He beat Hillary by about 21 there in 2016. OK what about the other two. We'll keep them caucused. Bernie does well in caucuses. MUST CAUCUS. He did:

'According to a person with direct knowledge with the process which led to the rule changes, Iowa's "Frankenstein caucus" was the result of accommodations for Sanders supporters who wanted to maintain Iowa's and Nevada's first-in-the-nation caucuses, rather than end the practice of holding caucuses altogether, because caucuses were thought to favor Sanders. The use of the app was necessitated by rules put in place to make the caucuses more like primaries by releasing more data, including first-round preference totals.'

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/bernie-sanders-iowa-caucus-winner-trump-democrats-a9317761.html

First primary- (Iowa) Rural 3.4% Black. Accommodated for Bernie w/ caucus.

Second primary - (NH) Rural 1.1% Black. Next door neighbor won by 21% in 2016 in the bag.

Third primary - (Nevada) 8.76% Black. Not bad. Biden currently ahead. But Accommodated for Bernie w/ caucus

I don't know about you, but it looks like Bernie is trying to make things more favorable for himself, He's been at it for a while too. He has advantages in all three. He wants this shit over before S. Carolina. Biden must drop out nonsense is exactly what he wants. He does not want Biden in the race after primary/caucus # 3. Fuck dropping out.

1972 - George McGovern didn't win until the 4th primary but still got nomination. Muskie was winner of 1 and 3 and lost.

1884 - Mondale won 1 and 5, Gary Hart 2,3, and 4. Mondale gets nomination.

1988 - Dukakis 1 and 3. Gephardt - 2 and 3. Dukakis wins.

1992 - Clinton no wins until 6. Gets nomination.

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