Rosy polls but few yard signs: How Joe Biden stumbled in Iowa

[wyldwolf]

18. Causation doesn't equal correlation

If we're to compare candidates who had the most yards signs vs how often they've won, the results are decidedly against those who had the most yard signs.

Jonathan Krasno, political science professor at Binghamton University in New York who. along with other researchers, studied the effectiveness of campaign signs in a study published in 2016.

"Our initial hunch was we’d see higher (voter) turnout where there was lots of signs,” he said. “What we found is that we were wrong."

Strictly on the Democratic side:

Bill Bradley won the yard sign / bumper sticker primary in '00. (Lost primary)

Howard Dean won the yard sign / bumper sticker primary in '04. (Lost primary)

Barack Obama won the yard sign / bumper sticker primary in '08. (Won primary)

Bernie Sanders won the yard sign / bumper sticker primary in '16. (Lost primary)

Republican side:

Ron Paul won the yard sign / bumper sticker primary in '08 and '12.

Yard signs reveal the passion of the supporters, but don't often translate into wins.