My take on the Iowa Caucuses...

[Drunken Irishman]

62. I'm not saying Biden is out.

But if Biden only gets 13% in New Hampshire and is a distant third? He's done.

No Democratic candidate has gotten waxed in Iowa and NH and come back to win the nomination.

Clinton won Iowa, and lost badly in NH in 2016, but at least she won Iowa.

Obama won Iowa in 2008 and narrowly lost to Hillary in NH.

Kerry won both Iowa and NH, which solidified his front-runner status, in 2004.

Bill Clinton, and every other Dem, was non-competitive in Iowa due to Tom Harkin running, but Clinton finished a strong second and called himself the Comeback Kid after most everyone had written him off - but had Clinton not clawed back in NH for a finish where he needed 26% in a crowded field, he would have not won the nomination. NH defined him as a serious contender.

In 1988, Gephardt won Iowa but Dukakis won NH by 17 points - then the nomination.

In 1984, Mondale won Iowa with nearly 30% of the support and lost NH.

In 1976, Carter won the most delegates of any actual candidate out of Iowa and then New Hampshire.

Bill Clinton is the only candidate since the primary calendar was overhauled for the Democrats who's not actually won either of the first two - but his showing in NH made him the de facto winner.

If Biden is crushed in NH, like he was in Iowa, it's game over.