Democratic Primaries

Peacetrain

(24,288 posts)

65. We read the polls and tea leaves and thought Biden would be 2nd or 3rd

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Wed Feb 5, 2020, 12:28 PM

Feb 2020

So I am not too stressed out .. I have never seen him winning NH.. so yep it is South Carolina and Super Tuesday. People are just all over the place. All the other candidates get a lot of love. Bernie has his dedicated people.. there is no doubt about that and I do not discount them.... Very interesting campaign this year.. and people besides Joe are about to be vetted in a big way.. Joe is tough.. and can keep going I am not so sure about some of the others. I think Bernie will have a very hard time. Elizabeth and Amy can stand up to it. And Pete is going to get blasted also, but I think he can handle it. Andrew and Tom are not going to have to worry about that.. not their time. and Bloomberg, well he has the money I guess to blast back like none of the others can right now, because of that money. But NH if Joe comes in 2nd in NH, there will be gnashing of teeth and ripping of garments..

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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My take on the Iowa Caucuses... [View all] Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 OP

Agreed. denem Feb 2020 #1

A white, rural, young Iowa caucus wasn't Biden's demographics. Or Warrens. krissey Feb 2020 #2

I agree - but perception is reality in politics. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #3

I think Warren held on with what happened with her numbers the last month. krissey Feb 2020 #5

Yes!! That's why there was such spin by the sanders camp and his supporters before caucus Thekaspervote Feb 2020 #8

Not really. Kentonio Feb 2020 #81

What you say is true. But a loss never looks good or improves comradebillyboy Feb 2020 #92

I for one ibegurpard Feb 2020 #4

This message was self-deleted by its author Scurrilous Feb 2020 #6

Biden needs to get to those states. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #9

That is the issue with Biden. Two huge losses is going to present reminders of other runs of his. krissey Feb 2020 #11

Hillary also was aided by it being a two-person race from start-to-finish... Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #13

Right, and right. I agree about Warren having a surprising show in New Hampshire. krissey Feb 2020 #15

Exactly. A poor showing in NH and NV would remind everyone that Biden's previous attempts... Garrett78 Feb 2020 #24

Right. People still have time to scatter and find another to put their vote behind. krissey Feb 2020 #25

The narrative, ROFL. Scurrilous Feb 2020 #28

You sound like the supporter of every losing campaign ever. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #31

LOL Scurrilous Feb 2020 #38

Nothing to sell. If Biden gets blown out in three straight races, he's done. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #42

This message was self-deleted by its author Scurrilous Feb 2020 #44

Trump finished a close 2nd in IA and won NH easily. Not the example you want to be using. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #45

Biden needs to show in NH. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #47

You can deny history all you want, but that doesn't make it go away. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #34

Despite history, I think for Biden NV and SC radius777 Feb 2020 #55

SC voter changes mind because of NV treestar Feb 2020 #67

This message was self-deleted by its author Scurrilous Feb 2020 #23

Thx Scurrilous! Thekaspervote Feb 2020 #27

You're welcome. See you tomorrow. Scurrilous Feb 2020 #33

If Biden has abandoned NH, he will get routed and won't be the nominee. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #32

Biden's campaign has done little in NH, but I suspect the Iowa result has them rethinking. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #41

Yes. Biden needs a competitive primary. If he doesn't get it, he's gone. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #43

There are 57 contests treestar Feb 2020 #58

It doesn't matter if they're representative... Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #59

That doesn't mean it always has to happen that way treestar Feb 2020 #61

It doesn't. But history never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #63

No joke. No malarkey. THIS. emmaverybo Feb 2020 #36

... Scurrilous Feb 2020 #39

+1 the overhype of a state because it goes first treestar Feb 2020 #57

It is so stupid and insulting. Scurrilous Feb 2020 #74

It's a media creation too treestar Feb 2020 #86

Elvis shot at his TV a lot. Scurrilous Feb 2020 #91

Problem is too many candidates running. Another problem which very few in the MSM still_one Feb 2020 #49

I'm not saying Biden is out. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #62

These are unique times Irish. Not only are there too many candidates, many of those candidates still_one Feb 2020 #72

I agree Biden is in it through Super Tuesday regardless Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #75

I am not optomistic about his showing in NH, especially based on the polls you just cited. still_one Feb 2020 #83

Thx for that great breakdown of the real numbers. Thekaspervote Feb 2020 #17

This message was self-deleted by its author Scurrilous Feb 2020 #26

538's numbers have not updated to include Iowa's results. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #37

Here's some more numbers to ponder Thekaspervote Feb 2020 #7

That post by Zachary Asher is not very logical dualboy24 Feb 2020 #46

You're being too kind. Asher's tweet makes him come off as a moron. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #48

That pretty much sums up my take, as well. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #10

I agree that the fiasco helped Biden. krissey Feb 2020 #14

Buttigieg, Sanders, and Warren will not get the AA support they need. With or without NH, Joe emmaverybo Feb 2020 #12

People in SC will abandon ship if Biden does poorly in NH and NV. Narrative matters. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #16

No... the AA community will not be swayed by 2 small, 90+ white rural states Thekaspervote Feb 2020 #19

B. Clinton is the only candidate to win the nomination after losing both IA and NH. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #21

This message was self-deleted by its author Scurrilous Feb 2020 #35

Your faith-based prophecy seems lacking in evidence and objective data to support it LanternWaste Feb 2020 #68

Biden isn't immune to black support softening... Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #18

He just announced his biggest monthly campaign donations since he entered the race Thekaspervote Feb 2020 #20

Definitely not to Buttigieg or Sanders. Warren might have more success. But not one of them emmaverybo Feb 2020 #29

Biden isn't getting a majority of black support. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #40

I'm off. Enjoy. Scurrilous Feb 2020 #56

Biden doesn't have a majority of black support. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #60

Odd that as you argue numbers, you're the only one failing to provide any to support your premise LanternWaste Feb 2020 #70

Good post. krissey Feb 2020 #93

Yes. That too. Scurrilous Feb 2020 #95

I didn't know why Sanders was a part of that. But, thanks for the explanation. krissey Feb 2020 #96

No, he isn't. But the problem for the others is that they will be in an uphill battle to gain it. emmaverybo Feb 2020 #22

Great breakdown! The AA community is very tight knit, they tend to vote as a block Thekaspervote Feb 2020 #30

Stacey Abrams Too DarthDem Feb 2020 #53

Interesting take...but what about Bloomberg? Pachamama Feb 2020 #50

Bloomberg will only be a factor in my view if we get to the convention with no candidate having still_one Feb 2020 #51

I disagree. Blue_true Feb 2020 #82

The only way Biden will drop out is if Super Tuesday is dismal. I think the same applies to still_one Feb 2020 #84

IA and NH account for around 7-8% of convention delegates. Florida along accounts for like 13-14%. Blue_true Feb 2020 #87

Pretty much agree, and also... Mike Nelson Feb 2020 #52

Sanders will probably win N.H. with Biden second, followed by Mayor Pete third still_one Feb 2020 #54

I agree. But if Biden slips to third in NH, it's hard for me to see him winning the nomination. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #64

Regardless, Biden is in this through Super Tuesday, and I think it is a mistake for people to write still_one Feb 2020 #71

Writing Biden off now is a mistake... Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #77

We read the polls and tea leaves and thought Biden would be 2nd or 3rd Peacetrain Feb 2020 #65

No one thought Biden would be a distant third - let alone a distant fourth. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #66

You are not getting an argument from me on that one.. Peacetrain Feb 2020 #69

I don't understand how Buttigieg did so well. It seems it came out of nowhere. Beringia Feb 2020 #73

Not really. Pete has always done well in Iowa... Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #78

Thanks Beringia Feb 2020 #89

This MUST be the last time we lead off with Iowa and New Hampshire. redstatebluegirl Feb 2020 #76

All those words and you dedicated maybe ten to the biggest wildcard in the race. Blue_true Feb 2020 #79

I dedicated the least amount to the thing I least know about... Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #80

If Biden stumbles, Bloomberg's numbers skyrocket. Blue_true Feb 2020 #85

It depends on the scenario... Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #88

I can easily see that if Buttigieg did well in those states. Also though, krissey Feb 2020 #94

Fascinating race so far. Kentonio Feb 2020 #90