Monmouth NH poll, Feb 3-5: Sanders 24%, Buttigieg 20%, Biden 17%, Warren 13%, Klobuchar 9% [View all]

[highplainsdem]

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_nh_020620.pdf/

Among registered New Hampshire Democrats and unaffiliated voters who are likely to participate in the February 2020 Democratic primary, the race currently stands at 24% for Sanders, 20% forButtigieg, 17% for Biden, 13% for Warren, and 9% for Klobuchar. Others registering support includeTulsi Gabbard (4%), Andrew Yang (4%), and Tom Steyer (3%). Michael Bennet and Deval Patrick earn 1% or less. Another 5% of likely primary voters remain undecided and do not lean toward any candidate choice at this time.[Note: Mike Bloomberg will not appear on the New Hampshire ballot and is not included in this poll.]

-snip-

With the campaign still in flux, Monmouth examined the race under a number of different scenarios. Likely Democrats were asked how they would vote if the field was winnowed down. In a race restricted to the top five polling candidates, hypothetical support stands at 27% Sanders, 22% Buttigieg, 17% Biden, 13% Warren, and 13% Klobuchar. Take Klobuchar out of this picture and the race tightens to 28% Sanders, 28% Buttigieg, 19% Biden, and 16% Warren.

Monmouth analysts also ran a variety of likely voter models on the full list of candidates in addition to the benchmark results reported in this release. A model that increases the share of low propensity voters shows Sanders in front with 25%, Buttigieg at 19%, Biden at 16%, Warren at 12%,Klobuchar at 8%, Yang at 5%, and Gabbard and Steyer at 4% each. A model that gives more weight to traditional primary voters shows Sanders with 22%, Buttigieg at 21%, Biden at 18%, Warren at 15%, Klobuchar at 10%, Gabbard at 3%, and Steyer and Yang at 2% each.

Emphasis added.

The model that focuses on what are usually callled likely voters has the top 3 in a 4-point range, a statistical tie.