Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: Nate Silver predicts Bernie Super Tuesday dominance [View all]Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)It's silly to dismiss it.
We don't know what Biden's lead is in any of these states because we haven't seen polls from 'em since Iowa. The lone poll that was actually out in the field post-Iowa was the PPP poll from North Carolina and Biden leads +9. That's promising. However, the last PPP poll had Biden at +13 a month ago. Biden also went from leading 31-18-8 over Bernie & Bloomberg in that poll to leading now 25-16-14. Biden's lead shrank from +13 to +9 but more troubling is that his overall vote total shrank from 31% to 25% - a six-point drop in less than a month.
That's just comparing a PPP poll to a PPP poll. The last FOX News poll, released in November, had Biden +22!
We don't know what his standing is in almost every one of those states he leads. Even SC is uncertain, as the latest poll there came out the day before the Iowa Caucus.
What we do know is that in every post-Iowa poll, Biden has lost support. He's lost support nationally and he's lost support in New Hampshire (quite a bit, actually) as well as North Carolina.
It doesn't take someone with a political science degree to see that another poor showing in New Hampshire will only continue the polling trend.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden