Nate Silver predicts Bernie Super Tuesday dominance

[Drunken Irishman]

91. I've never seen a candidate come in a distant third or fourth in either IA or NH and win the nom

My pessimism is rooted in the reality that since Iowa, Biden's numbers have slumped and that's just with one shit-show of a caucus hitting him. What's it going to be like when you add a fourth-place showing in New Hampshire? If Biden doesn't turn it around in NH, and again, I am not saying he has to win the dang thing, just prove competitive, he will have to turn around and produce one of the biggest, and most stunning, comebacks in Democratic primary history.

Here's the facts:

2016: Hillary won Iowa, finished second in NH
2008: Obama won Iowa, finished second in NH
2004: Kerry won Iowa and New Hampshire
2000: Gore won Iowa and New Hampshire
1992: Iowa was noncompetitive due to Harkin running, Clinton finished a strong second in NH
1988: Dukakis finished second in Iowa, won New Hampshire
1984: Mondale won Iowa, finished second in New Hampshire
1980: Jimmy Carter won the most committed votes in Iowa, won New Hampshire
1972: George McGovern finished second in New Hampshire

Since the primaries were radically changed prior to the '72 election, no Democrat has ever won the nomination without finishing second or better in New Hampshire.

Biden doesn't need to win New Hampshire. But if these two new polls are right, and he's at 11%, and a distant fourth behind Bernie, Mayor Pete and Warren, he'd have to mount the greatest comeback in primary history to win,

That's why I am so certain that if he flames out in NH (again, not loses, just loses badly), he's pretty much toast.

History might not repeat itself but it often does rhyme and what history tells us is that the nominee is going to be someone who finishes either first or second in New Hampshire - fair or not.