538 and Iowa: What a crock.

[Awsi Dooger]

10. I don't know why you bother explaining everything

Situational factors and shifts are not recognized or even considered by the vast majority. All they want is for someone to be proclaimed 90% certain and then that 90% favorite to win every time.

As a gambler for 36 years let me put it this way...538 made political wagering a hell of a lot more difficult. The respected markets follow their numbers and use their odds. Prior to that it was a comedy act of subjectively inept conclusions. I had a field day taking tiny favorites that should have been massive favorites. Nate Silver and 538 eliminated those bargains. That's largely why I shifted to the stock market so heavily instead of continuing to focus on sports and political odds.

I have to laugh every time someone knocks 538. Praising Rachel Maddow and ripping Nate Silver. That's the greatest combo of all time. She waves a poll in the air and chirps chirps chirps with a huge grin and no concept whatsoever that her cherry picked poll doesn't even threaten to align with the true status of the race in that state.