Democratic Primaries

guillaumeb

(42,649 posts) Sun Feb 9, 2020, 09:19 PM Feb 2020

I find the variance between polling and DU informal polling to be interesting. [View all]

One example from today:

Final Iowa delegate numbers:
Buttigieg: 14
Sanders: 12
Warren: 8
Biden: 6
Klobuchar: 1

At DU, Warren is the clear favorite when choosing from multiple candidates. In Iowa, she was third, or essentially tied for 2nd if one sees each group of two as too close to call.

What does this show, if anything?

Edited to add:

Even here, 43% are undecided. So in my view, we are guessing at this point.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

63 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

I find the variance between polling and DU informal polling to be interesting. [View all] guillaumeb Feb 2020 OP

DU is significantly more progressive than the rest of the country, typically. bearsfootball516 Feb 2020 #1

I would agree, in general. guillaumeb Feb 2020 #3

DU is not reflective of the population at large. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #2

At this very early stage of the primary process, every campaign has concerns. guillaumeb Feb 2020 #5

When I say "concerned".... Garrett78 Feb 2020 #20

I understood your reference. guillaumeb Feb 2020 #38

DU trends older and whiter than the population as a whole. WhiskeyGrinder Feb 2020 #4

And older voters tend to be regular voters. guillaumeb Feb 2020 #6

And despie the age of DUers, Sanders was way ahead of Clinton in polls here in 2016. highplainsdem Feb 2020 #28

Among other things... Newest Reality Feb 2020 #7

Great points. And I did recently edit to add that fact. guillaumeb Feb 2020 #9

Yes. Newest Reality Feb 2020 #13

That 43% is almost exactly the amount of undecided in NH! So DU is a reflection of NH voters? Baclava Feb 2020 #46

I find the statement DU is much more progressive than the public tiredtoo Feb 2020 #8

It is an opinion. guillaumeb Feb 2020 #10

We are keyed in voters. We can tell you what happened with BCCI and blm Feb 2020 #11

And we might even be able to identify the 3 co-equal branches of government. guillaumeb Feb 2020 #12

✔️ blm Feb 2020 #14

If a day ever comes where you're happy and don't want to be... Jedi Guy Feb 2020 #22

plus a billion Celerity Feb 2020 #33

I was 16 when my family moved here from Canada. guillaumeb Feb 2020 #40

I don't know that I'd go that far. Jedi Guy Feb 2020 #57

Excellent points. guillaumeb Feb 2020 #58

Yeah, it blows my mind when people tell me they don't follow politics, or worse, don't vote. Jedi Guy Feb 2020 #60

Again excellent points. guillaumeb Feb 2020 #61

The average US household has $38,000 in debt, excluding mortgages. Jedi Guy Feb 2020 #62

I've wondered about this. democrank Feb 2020 #15

Struggling America blm Feb 2020 #27

You touch on another topic I love to raise. guillaumeb Feb 2020 #36

It shows DU not indicative of the voters actually casting votes. AncientGeezer Feb 2020 #16

kinda but tiredtoo Feb 2020 #18

Kinda.... but not....per 538..I don't see a big undecided AncientGeezer Feb 2020 #21

Just what i have been hearing on the tv machine. eom tiredtoo Feb 2020 #23

Stop watching it....I watch the polling....I don't see..can't find the big undecided...can you? AncientGeezer Feb 2020 #25

Poll: Sanders leads in New Hampshire, but half of voters remain uncommitted TwilightZone Feb 2020 #31

30% undecided.....that's your go to... AncientGeezer Feb 2020 #39

NH Poll: 30% undecided, with about half not firmly committed TwilightZone Feb 2020 #32

To a degree, that is true. guillaumeb Feb 2020 #37

Before the Purge, DU was overwhelmingly Progressive and supportive of Sanders. Bonobo Feb 2020 #17

two questions tiredtoo Feb 2020 #19

JPR..Jack Pine Radicals....it's a blast to peruse... AncientGeezer Feb 2020 #24

After Clinton won the nomination Hav Feb 2020 #26

I guess that's why almost all the DUers who supported Bernie in the 2016 election democrattotheend Feb 2020 #51

There was no purge. The more conspiracy minded Sanders supporters refused to sign emulatorloo Feb 2020 #30

ok i was a sanders supporter but must have passed the test tiredtoo Feb 2020 #34

I was as well. emulatorloo Feb 2020 #35

Me too democrattotheend Feb 2020 #54

Exactly. I recall many Hillary supporters being booted in 2008 for the same reason democrattotheend Feb 2020 #52

It struck me as diverse before. David__77 Feb 2020 #29

+1 JudyM Feb 2020 #41

There was no purge. Codeine Feb 2020 #44

tons of people were kicked out last time round well before the convention questionseverything Feb 2020 #47

Many people were kicked out in 2008 too democrattotheend Feb 2020 #55

i wasnt here in 2008 questionseverything Feb 2020 #56

I've been here since 2003 democrattotheend Feb 2020 #63

in addition to my previous comments tiredtoo Feb 2020 #42

I would not argue that point. guillaumeb Feb 2020 #43

I would estimate more than half. Codeine Feb 2020 #45

Back in the day, Dennis Kucinich would dominate DU polls. tritsofme Feb 2020 #48

Here's my anecdotal two cents: Mersky Feb 2020 #49

This shows that DU has no relationship to politics in the real world. brooklynite Feb 2020 #50

Neither Iowa nor DU represents Democrats nationally. The Velveteen Ocelot Feb 2020 #53

Dennis Kucinich was the darling of DU back in the 2008 primary. At least early on. Kaleva Feb 2020 #59