If Sanders wins Nevada, he will win the nomination for sure

[juliuswest]

41. You can't really compare 2016 to 2020 on the Democratic side

Sanders did do well in the early rounds then after California and the entire south really became apparent he wasn't going to come back. This time around you have to see it as similar to the Republican 2016 primaries, Trump coasted in that 25 - 30% lane while all the other hopeful contenders (Rubio, Cruz, Bush, etc) splintered the "moderate" vote.

Even my die hard Hillary Clinton friend called me the day before the debate and said he's going to get the nomination. I'm a little more skeptical because who knows whats going to happen, but based on the current trajectory of polling and the continued splintering of the "middle lane" it's mathematically unlikely anyone can catch up. Going to the convention and forming a majority like a parliament is another story, I'm just talking about winning the most states outright as a candidate.