What Are the Chances Sanders Has Another Heart Attack Before November? [View all]

[SidDithers]

https://slate.com/technology/2020/02/bernie-sanders-heart-attack-health-risk-profile-campaign.html

The information we have reveals a lot, though more comprehensive records would be better.

In early October, while campaigning in Nevada, presidential candidate Bernie Sanders was rushed to the hospital experiencing chest pain. He was admitted and had two drug-eluting heart stents placed in his left anterior descending artery—the one commonly known as the “widow-maker.” Three days later, the campaign released a statement confirming what any practicing physician could deduce—the senator had experienced a heart attack.

In the months since, he’s emerged as the frontrunner in a competitive race, keeping up a busy campaigning schedule and performing energetically in the debates. The news of his heart attack largely receded from the coverage of the race, and he recently announced he won’t be sharing more information about it, despite his October promise to make all of his medical records public. (It’s worth noting that in our fragmented system, the concept of a “full” medical record is actually a kind of fantasy. What would prove useful here would be more comprehensive original records, not just summaries; in Sanders’ case, even just a few key documents from the past year expanding more on what happened in October would be clarifying.)

If Sanders were to honor his promise to release his “full” records, a nearly complete analysis of his short-term health risks could be made. As a physician who assesses these types of risks on a daily basis, I believe that all candidates, especially older ones—and particularly Michael Bloomberg, who has just revealed that he has heart disease significant enough to warrant coronary stenting in the past—should level with the American people and release not just summaries from their personal physicians but comprehensive and detailed medical records. But even with the information we have now, it’s possible to take a meaningful look at the risks of further health problems cropping up during the senator’s campaign. I considered the risk that, between now and Nov. 3, Sanders might experience any of the following: a second heart attack, another life-threatening emergency, any event that would require hospitalization (including any “false alarm”), or even death. The risk is not trivial, and is worth explaining in full.

snip lots of detailed risk analysis - well worth the read

Here’s what they found: From the day they left the hospital, the one-year risk of at least one rehospitalization for any reason in Medicare beneficiaries who suffered a heart attack like Sanders’ was about 50 percent (the baseline annual risk among his age cohort is more like 1 in 6). Again, by virtue of four incident-free months on the trail, that number is now lower for Sanders. But his chance of another hospitalization between now and November alone likely remains between 30–35 percent. While the daily risk is low, around 0.17 percent, we have more than 250 days to go until Election Day. The risks add up.

Sid