Bernie (and Warren) could use the 2008 crash against Trump

[thesquanderer]

23. re: "And a 5% Margin of Error is basically a BS poll."

1. There is no correlation between margin of error and poll quality (i.e. the likelihood that the true result does fall within whatever MoE is specified).

2. MoE does not mean that all possibilities within the MoE are equally likely. They are bell curved. Results near the specified numbers are more likely than results that are further away. If Sanders is 7 points ahead of Trump in a poll with MoE of 7, sure, there are still plenty of results consistent within that MoE where Trump can win, but it remains more likely that the actual result will favor Sanders than Trump.

3. Now put that in context of all those other 9 polls that I linked to, where Trump did not lead in a single one, and Sanders leads by anywhere form 4 to 14. Yes, MoE means these numbers are not all accurate... but odds that ALL of them are off SUBSTANTIALLY and all in the SAME directions start to get vanishingly small. The more polls that support the same results, the more likely the information is correct.

I'm not saying Sanders definitely wins Michigan. I'm just saying it makes no sense to say it's a fact that he won't, when not only can no one predict the future, but the best tools we have (polls) are 100% consistent in showing the odds favor the opposite.

But I can't say any more than that about it, and if you don't buy it, fine, we can agree to disagree. There's nothing to be gained here by further discussion, and the personal insults are tiresome.