We're screwed. Trump will probably win again and we'll probably lose the House.

[Rilgin]

159. The same assumption holds in reverse

You assume that a Non-Justice democrat would win where the Justice Democrat lost. There are also differences between candidates as political animals. You have a lot of assumptions built in. I will point out that under your assumptions, we should not run a centrist because Hillary lost 2016. However I assume you think Bernie would have also lost. You also assume that the justice democrats who won the democratic primary were in districts where republicans were not strong and committed so that any candidate would lose the general even though a progressive won the primary.

I don't really have the same assumptions. In my world it is really possible that some districts a centrist might be better and some districts a progressive might be better purely as an electability measure. However, in many districts it does not make a difference especially in times like we have at the moment where parties are so divided. This is mostly consistent with Rachel Bitecofer's analysis of the electorate which I find pretty interesting.