Democratic Primaries

Cicada

(4,533 posts)

184. Relax, the cavalry is coming

Mon Feb 24, 2020, 09:26 AM

Feb 2020

Trump may win, the House May flip, but those will be brief setbacks. Trump’s biggest generational advantage is with the soon to die age group. He won them by five percentage points. Among the youngest 40% of those eligible to vote Dems are favored over Repubs by almost two to one, almost a 30% advantage That generational margin exceeds the size any other in history by a mile. Pew tracking over many years shows zero tendency to get more conservative with age. As the young get older and vote in higher percentages the Republican Party will cease to be a national party. What happened in California is exactly what is soon going to happen in the US as a whole. There will be conservative judges with life tenures but FDR faced the same problem yet he prevailed. Soon we will be a mighty force trying to protect the environment. Soon we will have universal affordable health insurance. Soon child care will be more affordable. Soon women will have nearby clinics giving them reproductive rights. Big money political donors won’t be able to buy the government. Yes, we are in the dark. But soon the sun will rise.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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We're screwed. Trump will probably win again and we'll probably lose the House. [View all] jaysunb Feb 2020 OP

Then America deserves to collapse if Americans are that stupid. OliverQ Feb 2020 #1

I don't. You don't. My children certainly don't. Codeine Feb 2020 #40

Agree 100%. Except for those, left and right, who did it. nt Hortensis Feb 2020 #58

And my grandchildren don't deserve it either PatSeg Feb 2020 #77

My family does NOT deserve to collapse. onecaliberal Feb 2020 #129

Isn't it strange that some people can guarantee a loss if Bernie is the nominee ripcord Feb 2020 #148

Strange indeed... but not surprising. InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #154

If the Dems lose, it won't be because of Bernie or any other candidate. Eyeball_Kid Feb 2020 #156

He could win some of Trump's base. Nobody else can punch through. applegrove Feb 2020 #2

Only 3 states matter and other Dems are polling higher than Sanders. octoberlib Feb 2020 #5

Only Biden is polling higher in some swing state polls. OliverQ Feb 2020 #14

Bloomberg is leading in Florida and Michigan Kaleva Feb 2020 #43

Bloomberg doesn't have any leading AGGREGATE polling, not one !!! uponit7771 Feb 2020 #173

They need to start winning then jimfields33 Feb 2020 #55

Yes! This is what my family helped me realize. Claritie Pixie Feb 2020 #89

. Squinch Feb 2020 #112

Bernie appeals to a wide swath of the electorate cuz his policies appeal to peeps sense of fairness. InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #155

Your opinion is noted Downtown Hound Feb 2020 #3

Thanks elleng Feb 2020 #4

Thanks, but if Biden or Bloomberg are not the nominee, we're fucked. jaysunb Feb 2020 #6

I'm a Biden supporter Downtown Hound Feb 2020 #10

Thank you. You're the first Biden supporter I've heard say that. OliverQ Feb 2020 #18

Exactly. People who are constantly making this claim about Sanders dooming us Downtown Hound Feb 2020 #31

I will add my thanks for someone supporting their own candidate with respect for others. Rilgin Feb 2020 #44

At the end of the day, it's about uniting the opposition Downtown Hound Feb 2020 #116

+1 Meadowoak Feb 2020 #64

rec. MerryBlooms Feb 2020 #144

It is interesting that we have been focused on registrering young voters ripcord Feb 2020 #24

Indeed. n/t Downtown Hound Feb 2020 #37

It is supported by the facts. Qutzupalotl Feb 2020 #134

When it actually damages his standing, get back to me Downtown Hound Feb 2020 #135

By then it will be too late. Qutzupalotl Feb 2020 #136

None of those are facts, they're opinions Downtown Hound Feb 2020 #137

They are all facts, Qutzupalotl Feb 2020 #141

There's nothing to dismiss Downtown Hound Feb 2020 #142

So it is factual. Qutzupalotl Feb 2020 #143

Factual that they have oppo research? Um, yes. I never said they didn't have Downtown Hound Feb 2020 #145

You said all my facts were opinions. Qutzupalotl Feb 2020 #147

Your initial post to me was in respose to this: Downtown Hound Feb 2020 #149

To be clear, we are not automatically doomed. Qutzupalotl Feb 2020 #151

+1 uponit7771 Feb 2020 #175

FACT: Sanders has no historical swing state appeal outside of MOE, Biden has the most uponit7771 Feb 2020 #174

Why do you assume either of them can win? OliverQ Feb 2020 #15

Also, if Bloomberg is the nominee, we're fucked Saviolo Feb 2020 #45

+1, I don't believe people are even thinking about Bloomberg uponit7771 Feb 2020 #176

If Bloomberg is the nominee we're screwed Bradshaw3 Feb 2020 #59

The Democratic candidate will be running against TRUMP. Eyeball_Kid Feb 2020 #158

I second that!! InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #152

I support Downtown Hound. . . Collimator Feb 2020 #181

Everybody! Mark his words!!! Bonobo Feb 2020 #7

"know nothing"? oasis Feb 2020 #97

Hard to argue at this point HarlanPepper Feb 2020 #8

Yep, say goodbye to Speaker Pelosi Lexblues Feb 2020 #9

No Bernie fan here, but there is a line in your post I find disturbing - alittlelark Feb 2020 #48

Something along these lines needs to be its own OP. 5X Feb 2020 #101

He surrounds himself with Jill Stein voters and people who sow distrust and division in the party. MrsCoffee Feb 2020 #121

If Sanders were to win the nomination... W_HAMILTON Feb 2020 #11

just like many of them ran on not supporting Pelosi ibegurpard Feb 2020 #30

Except Sanders -- and especially his supporters -- don't really follow in Pelosi's footsteps. W_HAMILTON Feb 2020 #52

Well, aren't you just a ray of sunshine Bettie Feb 2020 #12

Sen. Warren would have a better chance than Sanders. jaysunb Feb 2020 #21

And I refuse to give up hope Bettie Feb 2020 #27

A couple things 2naSalit Feb 2020 #35

300,000 True Blue American Feb 2020 #103

agree 100% evertonfc Feb 2020 #13

Please stop. This kind of thinking only encourages the republicans and the Russians. CaliforniaPeggy Feb 2020 #16

Hopefully Putin is reading this Moderateguy Feb 2020 #20

No, people who refuse to vote will end this American Experiment. YOHABLO Feb 2020 #17

Sanders is the nominee Trump wants and on a cold November day we can watch it all crumble when Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #25

Well I'm going to vote and encourage others to as well. YOHABLO Feb 2020 #32

I don't. We need to win the EC . I will vote for any nominee including Sanders. But I Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #96

Is this discussion going... bluedeathray Feb 2020 #19

The voters get the government they deserve Shermann Feb 2020 #46

This Isn't Accurate DarthDem Feb 2020 #22

Moderates won the house and they are up for reelection...the top of the ticket is big on who wins. Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #26

If you go district by district, DarthDem Feb 2020 #33

There is also another built in assumption. Rilgin Feb 2020 #49

That's Fair DarthDem Feb 2020 #86

Except a bunch of jusice dems did run dsc Feb 2020 #109

The same assumption holds in reverse Rilgin Feb 2020 #159

We can look at numbers dsc Feb 2020 #160

Your numbers are off Rilgin Feb 2020 #166

That is not true. If Sanders loses big in those red purple districts, we lose the house. Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #93

Which ones? DarthDem Feb 2020 #100

The districts that Trump won in 16 by large margins...a high turnout of Trump supporters... Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #122

I don't think so DarthDem Feb 2020 #138

They will vote against Sanders...and it will continue down ticket. if we had a nominee they could Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #162

Not if we all stand behind the nominee karynnj Feb 2020 #23

Wishful thinking not political reality...this is a center left country maybe a center right Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #29

What makes you think a man who spent his career using law enforcement to terrorize Downtown Hound Feb 2020 #36

Trump is the terrorist; he must go. And Sanders is not great on guns ...important Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #92

I would vote for Bloomberg over Trump too Downtown Hound Feb 2020 #115

Do you understand that Black women are going for Bloomberg? because he has the money to beat Trump. Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #123

22% support from African Americans Downtown Hound Feb 2020 #128

According to what I heard to day on MSNBC that has gone up. We won't know until super Tuesday. Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #164

Maybe it went up to 23%. Downtown Hound Feb 2020 #171

I would suggest that there is something to the year plus of polling where Sanders karynnj Feb 2020 #68

I want Trump gone and Sanders wont win a general.Thus if Bloomberg has a chance...I Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #91

Not in the blue wall states...we are likely to lose a Senate seat in MI if Sanders if the nominee Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #124

Sanders actually won Michigan in the 2016 primary - easily karynnj Feb 2020 #130

I wish that were true. We have an EC which he won't win. Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #94

Sanders has no historical swing state appeal outside of MOE, Biden has the most. We can stand uponit7771 Feb 2020 #177

Can you back that up with state level head to head polling or anything else? karynnj Feb 2020 #183

Yes, look up Sanders Trump Michigan for instance and you'll get RCP avgs for that state uponit7771 Feb 2020 #185

Thanks for the link - but when I go to all the potential candidates, Sanders is slightly better than karynnj Feb 2020 #186

That's why I said historical because the same happened to Obama once he started winning he got uponit7771 Feb 2020 #187

To some, Bernie is inspirational. Few say that Biden is -and the economy will not be worse with him karynnj Feb 2020 #190

maybe it's time for you to take a break then ibegurpard Feb 2020 #28

Maybe not...it is looking like Trump will win at the moment if Sanders is the candidate but hey this Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #34

We've gotten through worse. ucrdem Feb 2020 #38

No we haven't . Trump is the worst. And we will have a 6-3 court. Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #95

Agree that's what it looks like but things are harder to break than they appear ucrdem Feb 2020 #157

Our only hope is to defeat Sanders for the nomination...field a candidate that can win and destroy Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #161

Doubt It colsohlibgal Feb 2020 #39

We survived three years of Trump. We can survive another five, if need be. Laelth Feb 2020 #41

Unless you have a pre-existing condition Shermann Feb 2020 #47

I doubt that the Republicans will be able to trash the ACA. Laelth Feb 2020 #51

The ACA is gone if Trump wins. Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #98

As it is now, it's not the same Polybius Feb 2020 #139

No, It Isn't DarthDem Feb 2020 #140

They won't touch pre-existing conditions, too many GOPers are old and sick, and have grandkids. Hoyt Feb 2020 #79

Supreme Court. All courts. The rule of law in general. DangerousRhythm Feb 2020 #60

I know. It sucks when they get to appont judges. Laelth Feb 2020 #62

I'm voting for the Democratic nominee. rockfordfile Feb 2020 #74

Me too...but I see little hope in a Sanders nomination. But I do have hope that Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #99

Wholeheartedly disagree SDANation Feb 2020 #70

Yep. I do. Laelth Feb 2020 #73

No you're pushing right-wing crap rockfordfile Feb 2020 #75

I take offense at your questioning my motives. n/t Laelth Feb 2020 #76

Based off what evidence?! Trumps willingness to walk out into 30 yrs of jail time if he wasn't ... uponit7771 Feb 2020 #179

Yes, but Supreme Court Justices are forever. n/t zackymilly Feb 2020 #106

Trump is different...he is a fascist in the making and we have no way to stop him...even Reagan was Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #165

You forgot about the "if you're white" part of your statement. Trump is taking brown peoples uponit7771 Feb 2020 #178

That's a stain on American history, no doubt. Laelth Feb 2020 #189

I haven't seen this thread 100 other times this week. Ace Rothstein Feb 2020 #42

+1 mdelaguna Feb 2020 #111

Bloomberg or Biden are our only chance GanjaGrower Feb 2020 #50

With a lot of work, we might hold the house Progressive dog Feb 2020 #53

Yay! People can be so fucking stupid. Dream Girl Feb 2020 #54

If we all work to get people to vote Dem... DangerousRhythm Feb 2020 #56

Any of our candidates CAN beat Trump. dchill Feb 2020 #57

Like I said in another post, I'm more afraid that DU will go into terminal meltdown if Sanders wins Fiendish Thingy Feb 2020 #61

I would be delighted...delighted...If I though Sanders could win...I would be all in ...would have Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #125

We will all need to muster the courage to persist despite our worst fears Fiendish Thingy Feb 2020 #131

You think it will hugs and ham sandwiches around here if Sanders wins? Sanders is NOT Obama ... uponit7771 Feb 2020 #180

Your heart attack is precious donheld Feb 2020 #63

Bernie will win. And we keep the house and win the Senate back! Meadowoak Feb 2020 #72

Keep dreaming. dhol82 Feb 2020 #78

Dream on musette_sf Feb 2020 #80

Not in this lifetime...and your candidate will be seen as a spoiler and will be finished in Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #126

Most likely true Jakra Feb 2020 #65

Ok Chris Matthews juliuswest Feb 2020 #66

I'm in AZ Olafjoy Feb 2020 #67

I'm in AZ Bradshaw3 Feb 2020 #69

Not really, you want it to be that way but a purple at best state that has never gone for the Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #132

Sadly, I feel the same. I hope we are wrong. Vivienne235729 Feb 2020 #71

It's Still A Long Way Until The National Convention Vogon_Glory Feb 2020 #81

Guaranteed..I'm not going to worry about it. Let the Bernie cult live with it. nt helpisontheway Feb 2020 #82

We will all have to live with it. n/t zackymilly Feb 2020 #108

This all I can say about November doc03 Feb 2020 #83

Pessimism is close to defeatism. guillaumeb Feb 2020 #84

How about realism?? nancy1942 Feb 2020 #88

Who defines what is realistic? guillaumeb Feb 2020 #119

Political reality is based on the numbers...Sanders won't win blue wall states and has no Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #133

Trump/Russia want Sanders to be the one they run against. keithbvadu2 Feb 2020 #85

Misplaced Panic colsohlibgal Feb 2020 #87

The insane opponent is the one to watch out for Shermann Feb 2020 #105

No way, Bernie will obliterate Trump budkin Feb 2020 #90

I'm not so sure Shermann Feb 2020 #107

What crossover vote? OliverQ Feb 2020 #117

That's mostly true Shermann Feb 2020 #120

why don't you work for a candidate instead of against one? 5X Feb 2020 #102

Chicken little much? DiverDave Feb 2020 #104

I'm voting 🗳 for whoever is the nominee Delmoniko Feb 2020 #110

You are absolutely correct. Squinch Feb 2020 #113

Nope. Eyeball_Kid Feb 2020 #114

sanders would kill down ballot candidates Gothmog Feb 2020 #118

correct. start accepting it. EveHammond13 Feb 2020 #127

Not to be a dick, but how well did your predictions go in other elections? Gore1FL Feb 2020 #146

Past is prologue. 1972. n/t jaysunb Feb 2020 #150

I can list dates, too. Gore1FL Feb 2020 #163

Oaky dokey jaysunb Feb 2020 #167

I lived through it, too. A lot has changed in 50 years. Gore1FL Feb 2020 #168

Sorry, the dynamics are almost identical. Nt jaysunb Feb 2020 #169

Almost identical.... Gore1FL Feb 2020 #170

LOL!! Good one!! InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #153

Kicking Cha Feb 2020 #172

There comes a point when all this doom and gloom ... markpkessinger Feb 2020 #182

Relax, the cavalry is coming Cicada Feb 2020 #184

It is too soon to declare Bernie the winner treestar Feb 2020 #188